I extrapolated data from CNN's
Montana data and the Montana Secretary of State
page, plus
this info about Yellowstone County.
Projection:
Tester (D) 168,500
Burns (R) 165,100
Meaning Tester would win it by 3,400 votes.
Details below the fold.
I did a somewhat-better-than-half-assed projection using numbers from CNN (mostly) and the Montana websites (a little, it was slow). I estimated the number of votes remaining to be counted in each county, and allocated to each candidate according to the ratio of votes they'd won of those already cast. It was a little touch-and-go regarding Yellowstone County because we had numbers from before they started counting by hand, but it was unclear what %% of precincts that was (the
source said 36,228 votes with 100 precincts counting, but
this article says there are 70,000 votes to be counted in Yellowstone county. So I just estimated half of the votes had been counted.
So anyway, Burns stands to gain in a number of the counties which have only been partially counted, and Tester will gain from others. I think there's going to be a net loss to Tester, but that it shouldn't completely undo his lead.
I left out Meagher county because there'd been no data at all. But it lives up to it's name, there are only 1,900 people living there, so it shouldn't swing it. Furethermore, CNN colors it neutral.
Projection:
Tester (D) 168,500
Burns (R) 165,100
Meaning Tester would win it by 3,400 votes.
Add a few votes to both sides from Meagher.
THIS IS ONLY AN ESTIMATE. IT ASSUMES THAT PRECINCTS ARE THE SAME SIZE AND THAT PEOPLE VOTED THE SAME ACROSS PRECINTS WITHIN COUNTIES. We can't assume that that'll happen.
But this is maybe the best we can do as a guess as to where this is going.
NOTE: This was first a comment but I thought I'd give it more air time.
UPDATE: YOU CAN SEE THE SPREADSHEET I USED HERE