I
called it weeks ago and
Rumsfeld's resignation today is the first sign that the war is OVER!
Our troops won't come home for a while, but make no mistake - the American people have spoken, and they want no more of this.
Not because Bush would do this out of any sense of decency, respect for the voice of the people, or cognizance of how much he's fucked up. Don't think I'm saying that. But rather, this is the case because Republicans will not allow the war in Iraq to drag them down again in 2008.
Robert Gates, the new Secretary of Defense, is one of Bush 41's boys, so it's not a stretch to believe that he will happily implement the recommendations of James Baker's ISG. He's also, according to
the WSJ blog, a
DOVE on Iran!
In the summer of 2004, Gates and former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski co-chaired a task force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations that argued for opening a dialogue with Iran. The task force's report contended that the lack of American engagement with Iran had harmed American interests, and advocated direct talks with the Iranians.
This doesn't sound like a neoconservative or a Cheney-like hawk on the middle east.
I think it's very significant that numerous Democrats, particularly those who have been most outspoken on Iraq, were eager to mention James Baker's group last night when prognosticating on Iraq.
It's clear that Democrats are willing to give Bush the face-saving cover he needs when the report comes out, and today's change at the Pentagon indicates that Bush may be willing to take this chance to get out while he still can.
This has also given me a new perspective on WHY the Iraq Study Group report was delayed until January. We've been hearing that it was to prevent the report's conclusions from influencing the elections... but I'm of the opinion today that it was to ensure that the elections had the appropriate influence on it.
If Republicans had kept their majority in both houses of Congress, the report would recommend something stay-the-course-but-change-tactics-esque, and Rumsfeld would've stayed. But they also planned (I know this is hard to believe, but bear with me!) a change-the-course strategy, minus Rumsfeld, in the event that Dems won big - which they did.
And as I said above, this isn't because George Bush wanted this, but rather because Republicans have forced his hand. There are lots of Congressional Republicans who have ambitions in 2008 and beyond, and they'll be damned if Bush's Iraq fuck-ups are going to drag them down again. With a Democratic Congress, those Republicans now have the leverage they need - they have the power to give Democrats filibuster-proof majorities in the Senate, or veto-proof majorities in the House.
So as I've been predicting for the past few weeks, the war is now OVER. We've seen the first signals today - and over the next few weeks we'll see more and more moderate Democrats and Republicans start to make noise. When Baker's ISG comes out in January, which will no doubt recommend phased withdrawal and engaging Iran (that's why we've got Gates in at Sec Def!), the dam will break and it will be made official.