Political prognosticator Charlie Cook tells us that barring a Perfect Storm, Republicans will retain control of Congress. 1994, the year Republicans gained control of Congress was considered a Perfect Storm. Are we now facing a Democratic Perfect Storm? In this 1st diary of five I review what happened in 1994. In the next I will illustrate what indicates 2006 is a Perfect Storm and how Democrats can best take advantage of it. In the 3rd, 4th, and 5th diaries I will focus on specific Senate races with excellent Democratic candidates and weak Republican incumbents that are considered 2nd tier.
In 1994, Republicans gained 52 seats in the House of Representatives and 8 seats in the Senate, quickly followed by Senator Shelby - AL switching from D to R. Republicans gained control of Congress for the 1st time in 42 years. In addition, no Republican incumbent for Federal office or Governor lost their race. Even the Democratic Speaker of the House lost his seat.
How did this happen? The 1994 election was a referendum on President Bill Clinton. In May 1993, for the first time, Clinton's net approval rating turned negative. His ratings then began to go up and down until May 1994 when his disapproval rating solidified in the mid to high 40's with an occasional foray into the 50's. At the same time his approval ratings solidified in the mid to high 40's with an occasional foray into the 30's. According to exit polls 86% of House votes were consistent with Presidential approval in 1994. That means those who approved of the President tended to vote for the Democratic candidate and those who disapproved tended to vote for the Republican. In 1990, the rate was 68%, 1986 it was 72%, and in 1982 it was 82%. Republican turnout was up in every region of the country and Democratic turnout was down with the exception of the Mid Atlantic and Far West states compared to 1990. There was a drop in voter turnout of those with incomes of $15,000 or lower by 21% and a 33% increase in turnout of those with incomes greater than $50,000. The participation rate of first time voters (18-19 yr olds) dropped from 17.3% to 14.5% and 18-24 year old voting dropped by 20%. Traditional supporters of the Democratic party failed to turn out while traditional supporters of the Republicans turned out. It was the year of the angry white male. Key to this were Republican efforts to raise the negatives of their opponents and tying Democratic incumbents to Clinton and painting them as out of touch career politicians. Republicans also ran against Congress whether they were a part of it or not. Congressional disapproval reached an all time high of 79% in 1994. Republicans followed the strategy developed in 1988 by Lee Atwater and Roger Ailes, it doesn't matter what your net approval is as long as your opponent's is worse. This was clearly illustrated in the races for Governor of New York, Iowa, and California where the Republican candidates all had high unfavorable ratings but managed to get the Democratic unfavorable ratings higher than their favorable ratings and won.
While there were other factors in the Republican's victories, such as a large number of retiring Democrats and the redistricting of Congressional districts that created minority majority districts leaving white southern Democrats vulnerable, these factors would not have given Republicans control of Congress nor explained their incredible victories in states like Washington where 5 incumbent Democratic House members lost.
To sum up, Democrats lost in 1994 because Republicans were able to capitalize on the unpopular Democratic President and turned the election into a referendum on Clinton. Democratic voters were disappointed in the President and failed to turn up at the polls and Republican voters hated him so did turn up.
Next diary, is 2006 the Democratic Perfect Storm?(yes) and how the Democrats can make the most of it.