Last Diary I briefly reviewed what happened in 1994 that gave Republicans control of Congress for the 1st time in 42 years. In this diary I will illustrate what leads me to believe this year is the Democratic Perfect Storm.
Indicators of a Perfect Storm for Democrats:
1. Unpopular President
Table Comparing Clinton & Bush Approval/Disapproval Ratings 93-94 & 05-06
Line Graph of Clinton & Bush Approval/Disapproval
Line Graph of Clinton & Bush Approval
Line Graph of Clinton & Bush Disapproval
The approval/disapproval ratings speak for themselves. What is probably most important for Democrats is the high disapproval rating Bush has. Leading up to the 1994 election the highest disapproval Clinton had was 52% in September with a net approval (approval less disapproval) rating of 0% just before the general election. Clinton's net approval rating didn't go negative in 1994 until after May. By contrast, Bush seems to have made the mid fifties his floor for disapproval. His 60% disapproval rating only begs the question of how high he can go. His current net approval rating of -24% compared unfavorably to Clinton's highest negative net approval from May 93 through November 94 of -9%. As I pointed out in the previous diary, when the President is unpopular those who disapprove or approve tend to vote that way for Congress. In 1994 that number was 86%, only 14% of voters went against their inclinations about the President when voting for Congress. In the Pew Poll 2/06 31% consider their vote as a vote against Bush while only 18% consider it a vote for him and 47% don't consider the President a factor. In the Pew 10/94 poll, 23% considered their vote as a vote against Clinton, while 17% thought it was a vote for him and 54% said the President wasn't a factor.
2. Republican Congress Unpopular
In 1994 Congressional disapproval reached an all time high of 79%. We aren't there yet as a January Gallup poll shows Congressional disapproval at 67%. 1994's 1st quarter number of 58% disapproval seems tame in comparison. With Republicans controlling both the Presidency and Congress it is unlikely that voters will have a general throw the bums out attitude instead of a throw the Republican bums out. Bolstering the Democrats are recent polls showing a large margin of voter support for Democrats over Republicans in a generic match-up with Democrats getting 55% and Republicans 39% in the March Gallup poll. In the Pew Poll 2/06 , Democrats were at 50% and Republicans at 41% compared to their 7/94 poll with D's at 47% and R's at 45%. While the 06 Pew numbers aren't as good as Gallup the poll does show Independents favoring Democrats 51% to 32%, a massive gap that will be very important in Republican and Republican leaning districts.
3. Democrats won elections in 2005 by unexpected margins and won elections in 2005 and 2006 in traditionally Republican areas.
In 1993, Republicans won the Governorships of New Jersey and Virginia and in a special election in the safe Democratic House seat WI-01, the Democratic candidate won with only 675 votes and was defeated the next year. Kay Bailey Hutchinson won the special election to finish Democratic Senator Lloyd Bentson's un-expired term, receiving more than 67% of the vote despite facing an incumbent Democrat appointed by the Governor. We may now think of Texas as a deep red state but at that time the Governor was Democrat Anne Richards. Looking back it would seem that these elections were good indicators of 1994 elections. Charlie Cook and other political prognosticators don't give much chance to Democrats retaking Congress even with a Democratic Perfect Storm in large part because of redistricting (although there is always the caveat that in a Perfect Storm anything can happen). However, we all can look to (and have looked to) Paul Hackett's race in OH-03, a solid red district, and wonder if it is an isolated incident for a Democrat to come out of nowhere and do so well or if other candidates in other less red districts can unseat Republicans. Kossacks across the country report many, many, many, state legislative victories Democrats have won in Republican areas. Kentucky Senate 37th, Minnesota Senate 15th, & Senate 43rd, Missouri House 94th, Missouri House 132nd, New Hampshire Rockingham 3rd - 2 seats, & Strafford 3rd, & Hillsborough 1st, & Grafton 6th, New Jersey 1st , & 2nd, & 36th, Texas House 48th, Virginia Senate 33rd & House 23rd. The DLCC has some information on those who won some of these races races . In addition, Democratic victories for Governor of New Jersey and Governor of Virginia were larger than expected. I would like to point out that these candidates were quality candidates who ran good campaigns. However, over the years quality Democratic candidates have run good campaigns in red areas and lost. This year Democrats have the edge but we must still have good candidates running good campaigns.
4. Right Track Wrong Track Numbers Favor Democrats
In 1994, 57% of people believed that the country was on the wrong track and only 29% believed it was on the right track. In 1994, two-thirds of voters who thought the country was on the wrong track voted for the Republican candidates for the House. The recent March 6-8 AP Ipsos poll showed 67% believe the country is on the wrong track with only 30% believing we are on the right track. In fact, the last time that a majority of Americans thought the country was on the right track was June 2003. This kind of sustained dissatisfaction of the public makes it extremely hard for Republicans to turn things around in a short period of time.
5. Is it the Economy, Stupid?
In 1994, 57% thought the economy was in bad shape and 62% of that group voted for Republicans. In an ABC News/Washington Post March 2- March 5, 2006 poll, 56% thought the economy was not so good/poor. Like his father, Dubya and his people have tried to move public opinion by quoting statistic after economic statistic to convince people that the economy is doing well no matter what people think and have failed to turn around that opinion. Much of that may have to do with what people think the future holds. According to the 2/06 American Research Group Poll 49% believe that the economy will be worse a year from now while only 15% believe it will be better. The trend is negative. In the 2/05 poll only 25% thought the economy would be worse while 38% said it would get better. In the 6/04 poll it was 43% better and 15% worse.
6. Candidate Recruitment and Fundraising
In 1994, Republicans managed to recruit candidates that had a reasonable chance to win and raised the money to compete in districts they normally wouldn't bother with. For example, after years of running non-start candidates like Marilyn Derby in WA-05, Speaker Foley's district, Republicans put up Spokane lawyer George Nethercutt and spent the money needed to beat Foley. In terms of money, according to the 12/31 FEC reports by way of Superribbe there are 49 Republican held seats out of 87 ranked with Democratic challengers who have raised $100,000 or more compared to 20 Democratic held seats out of 42 ranked with Republican challengers who have raised $100,000 or more. Out of the top 42 Republican held seats 33 have Democratic challengers who have raised at least $100,000. There are 16 Republican held seats out of the top 42 with Democratic challengers who have raised more than $300,000 and only 9 Democratic held seats out of 42 ranked with Republican challengers who have raised more than $300,000. Early money is extremely important for many reasons, it leads to more money and other types of support as people begin to see a campaign as competitive. In addition, these strong Democratic challengers at the top of the ticket will help out the down ballot Democrats while weak Republican challengers at the top hurt their overall ticket.
7. Corruption and Throw the Bums Out
According to the Pew Research Center February 06 poll, 28% believe their representative should not be reelected. This reflects the Oct 1994 numbers that showed 30% believed their Representative shouldn't be reelected. More strikingly is the partisan breakdown of the poll showing R's at 18% D's at 31% and Indy's at 36% wanting the bums out in 06 while in 94 the breakdown was R's at 36% D's at 20% and Indy's at 34%. The poll also shows that corruption is an issue Democrats ought to pursue and publicize. Of those following the corruption news very closely, 69% don't want to see members of Congress reelected while those who follow it fairly closely oppose reelection by 55%. With all of the Republican corruption being exposed and promises of more revelations to come these numbers can only get worse for Republicans.
8. Dispirited Republicans Galvanized Democrats
When people believe their candidate will win they open their pocketbooks, they volunteer, they do what they can to make their perceptions reality. In Pew's 2/06 Poll , 64% of Democrats believe their party will do better compared to recent election with only 2% believing the Democrats will do worse. Only 23% of Republicans believe they will do better while 17% believe they will do worse and 56% think they will stay the same. At this distance from the November election optimism among Democrats and pessimism among Republicans is a good thing. It helps Democratic candidate recruitment and fundraising while depressing Republican candidate recruitment and fundraising, after all, who wants to back a loser.
2006 will be a Democratic Perfect Storm. Knowing how bad things are for Republican candidates nationwide right now gives Democrats a great opportunity to maximize the size of this storm. Two of the biggest resources in a campaign are time and money. We have the time right now to organize, recruit, and raise money. My next diary will deal with ideas on how to capitalize on this Perfect Storm. After that I will highlight three Senate races that need to be focused on in order to take advantage of this Storm.