Well, it's official:
Joe Hoeffel is out of the Lieutenant-Governor's race in Pennsylvania. He announced his withdrawal today, a day after he announced his candidacy. He apparently did so at the request of Governor Ed Rendell, who has voiced his support for the incumbent, Catherine Baker Knoll.
There's likely to be some discussion over Hoeffel's decision and Rendell's actions, and what it means for Joe's future, but I'd like to focus on the immediate: Who is going to be our nominee this November?
First, some background. In Pennsylvania, the Gov. and Lt. Gov. nominees are chosen on separate primary ballots, and not as true running-mates. Of course, gubernatorial candidates almost always have a de facto favorite, but there's really no guarantee that the guy at the top of the ticket will get the partner he wants.
Such was the case in 2002, when Ed Rendell defeated Bob Casey for the Democratic nonination, but his favored running-mate, then-State Senator Jack Wagner, lost to Knoll, who had previously served as state Treasurer.
Knoll, who will turn 76 this September, has been a constant source of embarassing gaffes. At a public event she once introduced the governor, Edward G. Rendell, as late actor Edward G. Robinson. She has a reputation for running through office staff at an alarming rate. She created a huge flap last year when she showed up at uninvited to the funeral of a Marine killed in Iraq. The resulting uproar forced both Knoll and Rendell to publicly apologize. As Lt. Gov., she presides over the State Senate, and it's an open secret in Harrisburg that Senators on both sides of the aisle despise her. Finally, she has an ongoing feud with Barbara Hafer, dating back to their fights over the Treasurer's office in the 1990s, and the friction between the two women was a headache during Rendell's 2002 run, to which Hafer's endorsement proved a key boost.
It's well-known that Rendell would prefer a running-mate, but has yet to endorse any candidate. Knoll, her unpopularity in the rest of the state notwithstanding, is well-liked in Southwestern Pennsylvania, especially with older voters. Rendell is already disliked in that part of the state, and can't afford to alienate the voters there anymore by dissing their preferred candidate.
Joe Hoeffel, the former Congressman who fought a losing battle against Arlen Specter in 2004, thought that with Knoll's declining fortunes, he could take the spot. But the fact that he is from Southeastern Pennsylvania, Rendell's stronghold, worried the Governor, who asked him to drop out of the race. (Rendell wants geographic balance so as not to accentuate his weakness outside of the SE corner of the state.)
Hoeffel was my preferred candidate. I understand the reasoning behind the geographic-balance argument, but the likely alternative, Knoll, is also just as likely to help the ticket as hurt it.
So, who have we got left? Knoll is still running, and must be considered the front-runner not that Hoeffel is out. Valerie McDonald Roberts, Allegheny County Recorder of Deeds, is probably Knoll's chief opponent. Also running are Gene Stilp, a Harrisburg-area activist whose claim to fame is opposing the legislative pay-raise this past summer through creative protest, and William A. Hall III of Northampton County, who appears to be a complete unknown.
So, who to vote for?
Knoll is gaffe-prone deadwood outside of SW PA, but provides a key boost in one of Rendell's weakest regions, especially among seniors. Flubs aside, she has extensive experience in state government, especially as Treasurer. Roberts is unknown outside of Pittsburgh, but could also provide a boost to the ticket there. She's a progressive with ample government experience, serving on both the Pittsburgh school board and City Council, and an African-American (as is the GOP's presumptive nominee for Governor, Lynn Swann). Gene Stilp, as a far as I know, is even more unknown. He's a former legislative aide whose chief issues are good government and greater civic participation. He's a colorful character, to say the least - google him. As for Hall - well, I've already told you all I know about him.
PA's primary is set for May 16. Rendell and Swann are likely to be in a dogfight this fall, and the the guy or gal on the other side of the ticket may prove to be the balance. Rendell's term hasn't been a smashing success for sure, but I really don't want to imagine what damage Swann and the GOP could wreak. (And if you would like to have a Republican Secretary of State monitoring Pennsylvania's elections in 2008, you are far more confident of our chances to take back the White House than I am.) Who do you favor?