As many of you know, I am a House race watcher who has been periodically ranking the seats, both Dem and GOP in terms of likelihood of turnover to the other party. In this respect, there are unsurprisingly far more GOP seats than Dem seats where there is a chance of turnover.
This diary updates my rankings, taking into account developments including primaries and first quarter FEC filings. For an explanation of my methodology, see the previous diary: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Here, I look at 69 potentially competitive races in GOP-held seats and 25 potentially competitive Dem-held seats. I divide them into three tiers and reserve the right to label races as tweeners. I diaried the financial numbers for these races:
I list the races by my ranking with the old ranking in parentheses:
Dem Seats
First Tier
1. Illinois 08 (4) (Rep. Melissa Bean vs. David McSweeney): Bean has been a top dKos punching bag. The NRCC is trying to ensure that ideologues won't have her to kick around anymore. She's raised an incredible $2.3 million to date, but her multimillionaire opponent has raised nearly $2.1 million--mostly from himself. The Change to Win unions aiding her liberal 3d party challenger will cause headaches, although the AFL-CIO endorsement of Bean should help.
2. Ohio 06 (6) (Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R)): The Dems dodged a major bullet with Wilson's write-in primary victory Tuesday, but this will be a hard-fought race in a fairly evenly balanced district. I give Wilson a very, very slight edge.
3. Louisiana 03 (2) (Rep. Charlie Melancon vs. Craig Romero): This race has been quiet of late. Melancon has gained some popularity from his actions responding to Katrina, but this is a GOP district and his narrow 2004 win was an upset.
4. Iowa 03 (7) (Rep. Leonard Boswell vs. Jeff Lamberti): Boswell has had health problems and Lamberti has had a solid few months. Lamberti outraised Boswell nearly 2-1 in Q1.
5. Georgia 08 (3) (Rep. Jim Marshall vs. Mac Collins): Marshall has looked strong so far--and there have been a couple of polls giving him a healthy lead. Still, the district tilts GOP after the remap and Collins is an ex-Congressman who outraised Marshall in Q1.
6. Texas 17 (1) (Rep. Chet Edwards vs. Van Taylor): Edwards has one of the toughest districts in the country for any Rep. to defend, but he's simply done everything right. His well-funded rookie opponent, however, is caught in a flap over how much Exxon stock he owns.
Second Tier
7. Georgia 12 (8) (Rep. John Barrow vs. Max Burns): This is a rematch of the 2004 race where Barrow was one of only 2 Dems to oust GOP incumbents (Bean was the other). The GA remap didn't hurt Barrow all that much. Both candidates are well-funded.
8. West Virginia 01 (11) (Rep. Alan Mollohan vs. Chris Wakim): The one race where the anti-corruption focus cuts the wrong way. Not that I am saying Mollohan did anything wrong; I don't know. What I do know is that he had to give up his position as the ranking minority member of the House Ethics Committee and there is an ongoing FBI investigation. Wakim is a solid opponent. That said, Mollohan has cruised for years and doesn't look in too bad shape yet.
9. South Carolina 05 (10) (Rep. John Spratt vs. Ralph Norman): Norman is the strongest opponent Spratt has ever faced, but as Chuck Todd put it: Could Spratt really lose in '06 after surviving '94? He's done nothing to make his constituents fire him--save his party affiliation, which he's had for his tenure in Congress over the last 25 years.
10. Colorado 03 (9) (Rep. John Salazar vs. Scott Tipton): Salazar has done a great job solidifying his position following a tough win in '04--and he's in far better shape than fellow frosh Bean and Melancon.
11. Utah 02 (5) (Rep. Jim Matheson vs. LaVar Christensen): Matheson is the other guy with a really tough district to defend. He's done it, though, and Christensen has done little since announcing. Still, he's a state Rep. and the district puts Matheson's "dead dog" ceiling around 55%.
12. Vermont at Large (20) (Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R) or Mark Shepard (R)): Welch has gotten some gifts lately: first, Progressive David Zuckerman announced he wasn't running, allowing for a two-way race. Then, Rainville got stuck responding to no-win questions about whether she, as a general, thinks Rumsfeld should resign. She hedged and then said yes, looking like a politician and giving Shepard primary ammo at the same time.
13. Illinois 17 (37) (????? vs. Andrea Zinga (R)): Rep. Lane Evans is the latest incumbent to win a primary and then bow out. The district's Dem organization will name a replacement nominee sometime soon--although no date has been set. Zinga was the '04 nominee who got stomped. The Dems will hold this seat unless they pick an awful nominee.
14. Ohio 13 (22) (Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R)): This district should stay Dem, but Foltin is a fairly strong candidate. The Dem primary shouldn't leave too much bitterness. This is Sutton's race to lose.
Third Tier
15. Kansas 03 (12) (Rep. Dennis Moore vs. Chuck Ahner)
16. Washington 02 (21) (Rep. Rick Larsen vs. Doug Roulstone)
17. Arkansas 02 (18) (Rep. Vic Snyder vs. Andy Mayberry)
18. Hawaii 02 (27) (open seat with multicandidate primaries)
19. Maryland 03 (24) (open seat with multicandidate primaries)
20. North Carolina 13 (30) (Rep. Brad Miller vs. Vernon Robinson)
21. Oregon 01 (nr) (Rep. David Wu vs. Derrick Kitts)
22. New York 01 (nr) (Rep. Tim Bishop vs. Italo Zanzi)
23. Pennsylvania 13 (23) (Rep. Allyson Schwartz vs. Raj Bhakta)
24. Virginia 09 (14) (Rep. Rick Boucher vs. Bill Carrico)
25. Oregon 04 (28) (Rep. Pete DeFazio vs. Jim Feldkamp)
The GOP seats are a longer list, so I will keep the comments to a minimum:
GOP Seats
1. Iowa 01 (1) (Braley, Dickinson, or Gluba (D) vs. Dix, Whalen, or Kennedy (R)): Little change in this race with three-way primaries brewing on each side. I still expect a close Braley (D) vs. Dix (R) race.
2. Arizona 08 (3) (Giffords or Weiss (D) vs. Huffman, Hellon, or Graf (R)): This race moved up because the two top Dems Giffords and Weiss continue to look strongest and Giffords continues to raise the most money--and the primary hasn't gotten ugly like in CO-07.
3. Colorado 07 (2) (Perlmutter, Lamm, or Rubinstein (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R)): Dems are testing whether having a primary in an open-seat race is better than not. Frontrunners Lamm and Perlmutter are tearing into each other, leading me to conclude that in this case the answer is no.
4. Connecticut 02 (4) (Joe Courtney vs. Rep. Rob Simmons): Courtney outraising Simmons in Q1 has done lttle to dissuade me that Simmons is the most vulnerable incumbent in the nation...
5. Pennsylvania 06 (7) (Lois Murphy vs. Rep. Jim Gerlach): ...but Murphy's outraising of Gerlach nearly did. It's hard to see how Gerlach survives in this district in this year.
6. New York 24 (14) (Mike Arcuri (D) or Les Roberts (D) vs. Ray Meier (R)): This looks to be an evenly matched open-seat race in an are trending blue. The contest is young yet.
7. Indiana 08 (13) (Brad Ellsworth vs. Rep. Jon Hostettler): This race was one of the biggest movers on the list, but Hostettler is freaking out the GOP leadership with his ongoing course How Not to Run a Campaign 101. He's given lessons 1 and 2 so far: "Raise No Money" and "Don't Have a Campaign Manager or a Spokesman". Meanwhile, Ellsworth is easily the stronget opponent he's ever faced.
8. New Mexico 01 (5) (Patricia Madrid vs. Rep. Heather Wilson): The good news: Madrid led all challengers in 1Q fundraising (and is the only sitting statewide elected official challenging a House incumbent this year). The bad news: there are waves over her conduct as AG in the investigation of the Dem former state Treasurer who's on trial on corruption charges.
9. Indiana 09 (6) (Baron Hill vs. Rep. Mike Sodrel): It's official: Hill-Sodrel III. Hopefully, it'll be Return of the Jedi.
10. Ohio 18 (8) (Zack Space vs. Rep. Bob Ney): Space just won the Dem primary and seriously needs to ramp up his fundraising. Ney hasn't been indicted...yet. I expect both of those observations to have changed for the better by the time the Q2 numbers come out in July.
11. Connecticut 04 (11) (Diane Farrell vs. Rep. Chris Shays): Farrell outraised Shays in Q1. Two things are clear: 1. Shays no longer fits in the Republican party, and 2. Shays' district doesn't care much for today's Republican party. Will this mean a Farrell victory? It depends how much the national prevails over the local; the party over the individual. My call: if Shays wins, Dems come up short overall.
12. North Carolina 11 (15) (Heath Shuler vs. Rep. Charles Taylor): Taylor just made arguably the stupidest series of political moves in living memory (OK, Sen. Jim Talent's stem cell research statements are up there). First, he stuck his neck out and blocked funding for a memorial to United Flight 93. Then, after huffing about standing on fiscal responsibility principles, he abruptly caved and did a 180--introducing the legislation. Incidentally, Shuler is for real and raised almost double what Taylor did in Q1.
13. Florida 22 (10) (Ron Klein vs. Rep. Clay Shaw): This will be a very expensive barn-burner between two of the top politicians in south Florida.
14. Kentucky 04 (9) (Ken Lucas vs. Rep. Geoff Davis): Lucas will have a close race to reclaim his seat from Davis, the man he beat in '02 (Lucas retired in '04).
15. Illinois 06 (19) (Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)): The first of a trio of midwestern open seats that I always rank together but change the order constantly. I am of the school of thought that the Duckworth primary victory was beneficial to Dem chances overall, so I moved the race in front of MN-06 and WI-08. All three are open seat races we should win if we have a wave in our favor and lose otherwise.
16. Minnesota 06 (18) (Patty Wetterling (D) or El Tinklenberg (D) vs. Krinkie/Knoblauch/Bachmann (R)): See above. Good fundraising quarter for Wetterling.
17. Wisconsin 08 (17) (Kagen/Nusbaum/Wall (D) vs. John Gard (R)): FWIW, Nusbaum has a poll out showing her beating Gard and the others losing to him.
18. Washington 08 (21) (Darcy Burner vs. Rep. Dave Reichert): Burner raised some eyebrows by outraising Reichert. A win here would be huge--getting Reichert out of this winnable suburban Seattle seat before he gets entrenched.
19. Pennsylvania 08 (20) (Patrick Murphy or Andy Warren vs. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick): The Murphy-Warren primary may be closer than expected, but expect Murphy to prevail. He outraised Fitzpatrick in Q1.
20. New York 20 (40) (Kirsten Gillibrand vs. Rep. John Sweeney (?)): Two huge developments in the biggest moving race in the chart. First, the scandal plagued Sweeney just got photographed getting drunk with college kids at a frat party--after taking off to attend a funeral. Second, he refused to commit to running--saying it was up to his doctors. As an open seat, this is just slightly less of an opportunity than NY-24. With Sweeney in the race, it's not far behind.
21. California 50 (12) (SPECIAL: Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray (R); GENERAL: Busby vs. Bilbray or (maybe) Eric Roach (R)): OK, OK. Busby unfortunately drew the strongest GOPer for the runoff. Still, Roach (the self-funding rightwing nutbar) may still contest the general election primary which is conveniently being held at the same time as the special election runoff. If he does, the two will keep fighting each other, making it difficult for Bilbray to focus on Busby.
22. Florida 13 (23) (Christine Jennings (D) or Jan Schneider (D) vs. Buchanan/Hudson/Detert (R)): The speed at which the GOPers are trying to run away from W (differentiating him from Jeb, who they all like) underscores the potency of an anti-GWB campaign this year.
Tweeners
23. Connecticut 05 (22) (Chris Murphy vs. Rep. Nancy Johnson): Depending on who you talk to, this race is either a tossup or fairly solidly Johnson's. She's the safest GOP Congressional incumbent in Connecticut, FWIW. Johnson has a huge warchest, but Murphy has run a strong campaign so far.
24. Ohio 15 (29) (Mary Jo Kilroy vs. Rep. Deborah Pryce): The announcement by Pryce's '02/'04 primary opponent that he would run as an indy makes Pryce's first tough race even tougher.
25. Arizona 05 (33) (Harry Mitchell vs. Rep. J.D. Hayworth): Mitchell has come out of the blocks strong and Hayworth is playing defense like a scared incumbent.
26. Pennsylvania 07 (28) (Joe Sestak vs. Rep. Curt Weldon): Speaking of strong starts to late developing campaigns, Sestak nearly outraised Weldon in his opening quarter.
27. Virginia 02 (25) (Phil Kellam vs. Rep. Thelma Drake): Kellam is running solidly since entering the campaign. I continue to believe that he would be the chief beneficiary of having Jim Webb at the top of the ticket.
28. Ohio 01 (27) (John Cranley vs. Rep. Steve Chabot): Cranley is running a good campaign and should give Chabot his toughest challenge at least since Roxanne Qualls in 1998, perhaps ever.
Second Tier
29. New Jersey 07 (31) (Linda Stender vs. Mike Ferguson): Stender is in good shape.
30. Florida 09 (34) (Phyllis Busansky (D) or Bill Mitchell (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R)): Very solid 1Q for Busansky.
31. Kentucky 03 (24) (John Yarmuth or Andrew Horne vs. Rep. Anne Northup): Yarmuth has the edge in the primary even though Horne is the better general election candidate.
32. New Hampshire 01 (39) (Jim Craig or Gary Dodds vs. Rep. Jeb Bradley): Craig outraised Bradley in 1Q. This race may well keep moving up.
33. Nevada 03 (35) (Tessa Hafen vs. Rep. Jon Porter): Solid quarter for Hafen.
34. Nevada 02 (41) (Jill Derby (D) vs. Heller/Angle/Gibbons (R)): Derby outraised all of the GOPers and is in good shape to watch the GOP primary and hope for fireworks.
35. Texas 22 (16) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. ?????): With DeLay's exit, the GOP has a much easier time holding the seat. Lampson has $2 million, but is likely the Dems' Doug Forrester circa 2002.
36. Indiana 02 (26) (Joe Donnelley vs. Rep. Chris Chocola). Lackluster quarter for Donnelley.
37. New York 29 (37) (Eric Massa vs. Rep. Randy Kuhl): Massa outraised Kuhl, but that was due more to Kuhl's crappy fundraising. Massa is one of many NY Dems looking to ride the Spitzer/Clinton coattails.
38. Illinois 10 (47) (Dan Seals vs. Rep. Mark Kirk): A major sleeper. Seals is the mini-Obama and managed to outraise Kirk in Q1. Look for some attention to come to this one.
39. North Carolina 08 (nr) (Larry Kissell vs. Rep. Robin Hayes): The Raleigh News & Observer just printed an amazing poll with Kissell actually beating Hayes, despite the fact that Kissell has little money or name recognition. Is Hayes' flip-flop on CAFTA enough to doom him against any comers? A word of caution: Hayes has plenty of funds and has pulled out close races before.
40. California 11 (36) (Jerry McNerney or Steve Filson vs. Rep. Richard Pombo): Neither Dem looks all that strong, but that may not make much difference should the law finally catch up to the walking pile of sleaze that is Pombo. There is hope.
41. New York 19 (49) (multiple candidate primary vs. Rep. Sue Kelly): Go Go Gadget Spitzer/Clinton coattails. Dem Judy Aydelott nearly outraised Kelly in Q1.
42. Minnesota 01 (43) (Tim Walz vs. Rep. Gil Gutknecht): Walz outraised Gutknecht in Q1.
43. Nebraska 01 (45) (Maxine Moul vs. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry): Moul more than doubled Fortenberry's Q1 fundraising.
44. New Hampshire 02 (50) (Paul Hodes vs. Rep. Charles Bass): Hodes' campaign looks surprisingly strong and he outraised Bass in Q1. Bass is the safest of the 5 New England GOPers, but a sweep is no longer out of the question.
45. Colorado 04 (32) (Angie Paccione vs. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave): Musgrave always seems to underperform, but this is a tough district.
46. Minnesota 02 (30) (Colleen Rowley vs. Rep. John Kline): Rowley has underwhelmed. Sharon Marko's exit from the race caused the drop.
47. Pennsylvania 10 (51) (Chris Carney vs. Rep. Don Sherwood): FWIW, a Carney poll has him only 6 points back and Sherwood under 50%.
Tweeners
48. Kentucky 02 (42) (Mike Weaver vs. Rep. Ron Lewis): Weaver is solid: a good candidate running a good campaign; the drop has more to do with other campaigns rising. Still, this district has trended GOP ever since Lewis won it, and I don't know that he's done anything to get fired other than to be an R in a D year.
49. West Virginia 02 (38) (Callaghan/Hunt/Robb vs. Rep. Shelley Capito): The main reason for the drop is the Mollohan crisis: his defense becomes the state party's #1 priority rather than this race. Plus, none of the Dems has done much on the fundraising front.
50. New York 25 (55) (Dan Maffei or Paloma Capanna vs. Rep. Jim Walsh): Both Dems outraise Walsh in Q1. This is actually the most Dem seat heald by a GOPer in NY. Go go gadget coattails indeed.
51. Florida 16 (56) (Tim Mahoney vs. Rep. Mark Foley): Mahoney is yet another Dem challenger to outraise a GOP incumbent in Q1. If the Medicare D debacle resonates at the polls, its first victim will be Clay Shaw; its second will be Foley.
Third Tier
52. Wyoming at Large (58) (Gary Trauner vs. Rep. Barbara Cubin)
53. Illinois 11 (46) (John Pavich vs. Rep. Jerry Weller)
54. Montana at Large (57) (Monica Lindeen vs. Rep. Dennis Rehberg)
55. New York 26 (52) (Jack Davis vs. Rep. Tom Reynolds)
56. Florida 08 (59) (Charles Stuart vs. Rep. Ric Keller)
57. Iowa 02 (44) (David Loebsack vs. Rep. Jim Leach)
58. Virginia 10 (nr) (judy Feder vs. Rep. Frank Wolf)
59. Pennsylvania 04 (53) (Georgia Berner or Jason Altmire vs. Rep. Melissa Hart)
60. California 04 (54) (Charles Brown vs. Rep. John Doolittle)
61. Kansas 02 (nr) (Nancy Boyda vs. Rep. Jim Ryun)
62. Michigan 08 (nr) (Jim Marcinkowski vs. Rep. Mike Rogers)
63. Indiana 03 (nr) (Tom Hayhurst vs. Rep. Mark Souder)
64. California 26 (61) (Russ Warner vs. Rep. David Dreier)
65. Virginia 05 (nr) (Al Weed vs. Rep. Virgil Goode)
66. Florida 24 (48) (Andy Michaud vs. Rep. Tom Feeney)
67. Michigan 09 (nr) (multiple candidate primary vs. Rep. Joe Knollenberg or Pan Godchaux)
68. Colorado 06 (nr) (Bill Winter vs. Rep. Tom Tancredo)
69. Texas 32 (nr) (Will Pryor vs. Rep. Pete Sessions)