cross-posted at
thoughtcr1me
In some ways, I think that Virginia's Allen(R) - Webb(D) may be one of the two most crucial races coming to the finish line this fall. It's both the candidates--Allen's Bush-alike persona, and Webb's in-your-face, converted-to-Democrat style--and about the state. Virginia's turning purple, if the 2004 presidential election and its last two gubernatorial races are any indication. I think that Webb's challenge for this Senate seat--which as few as 2 years ago would have been a virtual lock for Allen--is going to be a key indicator of how far toward the blue Virginia might turn.
Two months ago, this race wasn't even close--Allen and Webb were separated by double-digit percentage points. No one in Virginia knew Webb, and he didn't seem likely to go very far. As of the primary, IIRC the poll numbers were still in the double digits.
At the end of June, Webb had closed to within 7 points of Allen, according to a poll conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group. And that's pretty damned impressive, considering that the same poll found that, among Virginia voters polled, Allen has 90% name recognition, while Webb's figures are below 45%.More...
It's also notable (from the same source) that at this point in the 2005 gubernatorial race, Jerry Kilgore was leading Tim Kaine by 5%. Kilgore ended up losing that race by nearly 6%. This says very good things for Webb who, frankly, is likely to be a more attractive candidate to the average Virginia voter. He grew up here. He used to be a Republican. He served in combat, he was Reagan's SecNav. He understands war, and he's tough enough to oppose policies he knows are fundamentally wrong. He's tough enough to question rather than offer blind allegiance to a man or a party. Compared to what we've got now, he's like sunshine.
Allen, by contrast, has never served. He's not from Virginia--and don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that makes him a bad candidate, just that it's a minor reason voters may connect better with Webb than with Allen. Allen is proud to be a supporter of the President--in fact, one might think he's actually trying not just to support, but to become a second George W. Bush. Which is all well and good--if that's what he believes in, he ought to emulate his boy George.
But that poll I mentioned before? Says that 57% of Virginians polled think this country is on the wrong track. Sixty-two percent think that George W Bush is doing a "Fair/Poor" job as President. 68% want a Senator who will question Bush's policies. So though Allen's strategy favors cowboy hats and footballs, it's unlikely aligning himself with the Blind Faith Leadership currently in Congress is doing him any favors at the moment.
All hat and no voters is what it might come down to for Allen, if the trend toward Webb continues. All the more so considering that voters given a short positive profile of each candidate, the race becomes a statistical dead heat (44% Webb-43% Allen).
I wonder what effect Allen's voting, for the 2nd time in 2 years, to slash Homeland Security funding for Northern Virginia, will have. I mean, Northern Virginia has the Pentagon, numerous military and defense contractor sites, Arlington National Cemetery, the Iwo Jima memorial, 1/3 of Virginia's population, and 1/2 of its tax base.
I'm thinking it was a really bad move.
This race is shaping up to be like day and night. Right now, we're living in Allen's darkest point of night. It's starting to look like Virginia's finally ready to let that pretty dawn light shine through.