Like everyone else, I've been scratching my head about what Israel hope to accomplish with the current campaign in Lebanon. Israel
knows that air strikes won't work, that a ground offensive could hurt but not destroy Hezbollah, that the occupation of southern Lebanon would only lead to the drawn out misery of the first occupation of southern Lebanon (to say nothing about the West Bank and Gaza). Israel knows this. It
knows this! Its military strategy makes no sense --
militarily.
But that is not Israel's objective. Israel, quite simply, wants to scare the shit out of everybody. Everybody. And not just scared, but scared shitless. The ultimate goal is nothing less than peace in the region - if not real peace, than at least secure borders.
Seen from that light, the campaign is working brilliantly.
I'll explain on the flip.
I think that Israel has decided that the parties involved in the Arab-Israeli hostilities (themselves, the Palestinians, Hamas & Hezbollah, Syria, Jordan & Egypt, and the rest of the Muslim world) are incapable of solving the overall situation themselves. Israel is facing a permanent state of conflict that is not quite war but certainly not peace: an existence characterized by endless bombings, killings, raids, etc. etc. A state of alert and fear without end. It is a permanent hell for everyone involved. As long as Israel's main enemies were states, Israel could cope. States can be attacked, invaded, conquered. Non-state organizations like Hamas or Hezbollah, however, are amorphous, elusive ... and deadly. They cannot be defeated politically or militarily. And they can't ever be trusted. States exist, at least in theory, to promeote the security and welfare of their citizens. Hamas and Hezbollah exist to destroy Israel.
Under the current conditions, no settlement (no real settlement) can be negotiated, not among the states of the region, not between Israel and the Palestinians, not between Israel and Hamas & Hezbollah. No one trusts anyone else enough to take any chances with security. Why would they? As long as the extremists on both sides have influence, there will always be a risk (I might almost say certainty) of war, and in that case, who would give up critical tactical or strategic advantages?
The only hope for escaping this hell is for the rest of the world (the UN, NATO, anybody really) to intervene in a serious and meaningful way to separate the warring parties and force a resolution of the various issues. In effect, to force them to make peace, or at least to stop killing each other. What Israel wants above anything is to have its security guaranteed. In the long run, only an outside power or coalition of powers can do that. I suspect that Israel would be willing to make considerable substantive concessions if it could have its security guaranteed, and if it could be certain that its enemies would not be continually looking for ways to injure or destroy it. Again, only an outside power could do that.
The problem is, the world does not want to step in. In fact, the more violence there is in the region, the less the world wants to get involved. Suicide bombs, rocket attacks, airstrikes, sieges, hostage-taking -- it's all business as usual to the world. Dead Israelis? Ho-hum. Dead Arabs? Pass the sports pages.
So my theory is that Israel has decided to force the world to take notice by running berserk in Lebanon, killing people and smashing things. They've caused a massive refugee crisis and a huge evacuation from the country.
Yet if you get beyond the hysteria, you'll notice that Israel has been doing a lot more smashing things than it has been killing people. If they really wanted to kill a lot of Lebanese, you would see thousands or tens of thousands of dead, not hundreds. This "campaign" has had lots of sound and fury (and some randomly chosen but carefully targeted victims), but when you get right down to it, it has not been mass slaughter.
Israel wants to spread fear. It wants to spread panic. Note that the Israelis have been dropping leaflets telling people to flee their homes and warning that this is only the beginning. Note, too, that Israel has not attempted to interfere with the media. Far from it: Israel's military has been very accommodating to journalists. Why is that?
Because it isn't just the Lebanese that the Israelis are trying to scare. It's the rest of us. It's the Europeans and Americans. Israel is reminding the world that World War III could very easily start in the Middle East, especially when you've got those crazy, unpredictable terror groups and (now) those crazy, unpredictable (and well-armed) Israelis too.
Note, too, in what country Israel chose to conduct this campaign. Lebanon is home to Hezbollah, yes, but it is also Israel's most harmless and inoffensive neighbor. Lebanon itself cannot fight back. Thus, Israel can control the course and pace of military events. Any other of Israel's neighbors would fight back and the war would escalate uncontrollably. As it is, the danger of escalation is very low.
I think the Israelis would agree that the civilian casualties in Lebanon are regrettable. Yes, those people are innocent. Yes, the images are horrifying. They are meant to be. Is this moral or ethical? No, it isn't. But I think the Israelis believe that the survival of many thousands of people on both sides depends on this campaign. And as cold as this sounds, these deaths will not be for nothing if they lead to peace.
If this is Israel's plan, it is working brilliantly so far. This crisis is the top story around the world. Everybody is shocked, scared, even hysterical. (Just read the diaries on this board.) The international community is talking about sending peacekeepers, possibly from NATO or some other coalition. If they do, I think they will be real peacekeepers, not the toothless variety you normally see. They will force the Israelis to agree not to attack Lebanon, and force Hezbollah not to launch rocket attacks or make raids across the border. (Who is the winner in that deal? Here's a hint: It isn't Hezbollah.)
And I think you will see some serious diplomacy, which is no doubt already going on. The Arab-Israeli conflict will once again be at the top of the international agenda, and it will stay that way for a while.
More importantly - and this I think is what Israel is counting on - there is a growing sense around the world that things can't go on like this, that the situation must change. Talk isn't enough, toothless peacekeepers aren't enough, UN resolutions aren't enough. Real action must be taken to stop the violence, prevent cross-border raids, and knuckle down to resolving the outstanding issues.
The Israelis, of course, would never admit that this is what they want. They will hem & haw & do their best to set restrictions on whatever peace proposals come up, including peacekeepers. But I think, when the Israeli leaders are alone and talking only among themselves, they will be saying:
"It's about time!"