I just heard on NPR that Lopez Obrador is ahead in the recount with more than 30% of the votes counted.
A caller pointed out that there was something very strange in the preliminary vote count. In the States that went for PAN in the Presidential election, more votes were cast for President than for the Senate, but in the States that went for PRD in the Presidential election, more votes were cast for Senate than for President.
I did a quick check, and this is certainly true in the two states that I checked. In Nuevo Leon, which went heavily for PAN, there were 1,666,390 votes cast for President vs. 1,624,988 cast for Senate. In Tabasco, by contrast, there were 707,368 votes cast for President, and 799,107 cast for Senate. This seems especially strange in view of the fact that Lopez Obrador is a native of Tabasco, and one would think that people there would have been especially likely to vote for their "favorite son" as a matter of local pride.