As September quickly draws to a close and the election now less than 50 days away, thoughts turn to the inevitable "October Surprise". Rove is already out there, promising his minions some
help before the election. It's often hard to predict what "real world"events could occur leading up to the election and which side they might help or hurt. Bin Laden's appearance on the eve of the 2004 election, was thought to be a possible break for the dems, although it questionably ended up helping Bush in the long run. I wanted to throw some possible scenarios out there, just as fodder for discussion to see what folks think. Follow me below the fold.....
Bin Laden Caught - that's the obvious one, although I suppose it could make a difference if he was caught by the US, or Pakistan, in terms of a pro-Republican bump.
War with Iran - cw says this only helps the repugs and the prez
Bush admin concedes Civil War in Iraq - highly unlikely, although the presssure could get so great, even from "obedient" Generals on the ground, that the effect could be the same. Plus for the dems.
Red Cross exposes evidence of torture on "high value" detainees - Could go either way politically. I still think torture is a plus for repugs. They like it and approve of it, whether they admit it or not.
Those are just a few, but I'm curious to hear how you think these possible scenarios would play out as it relates to the November election.