And why the hell is MSNBC suddenly pushing their polls right and left?
What I do know on the flip.
Tonight, while watching Tweety (and rapidly clicking out when Tucker came gibbering on the screen, squealing about those unethical Democrats), I couldn't help but notice one "Hotline/Diageo poll" after another on the scroll. The numbers were interesting: they had McCain thrashing Clinton in a prospective 2008 presidential election, 48-38, and Giuliani similarly thrashing Clinton 48-40. That's a bit questionable, I muttered to myself; I don't follow polls that closely, but seems to me the polls I've seen show a fairly even split. The next poll showed something like 35% of the country (well, the folks polled) supporting the "surge." Hmmmm, I thought it was more like 20%. So who the hell is Hotline/Diageo?
Later tonight, I did just a bit of digging. We all know MSNBC has hooked up with The National Journal, home of smarmy buttoned-down conservatism; that explains some of these poll numbers right there. (Note AnnArborBlue's correction below; I think my dismissal of NJ might have been a bit harsh.) But who the hell is Diageo and why do we want to hear their numbers? I did a little Googling and came across the following site:
Diageo/Hotline Poll
This is what it says on the front page:
Diageo, the world’s leading spirits, beer and wine company, and The Hotline, the leading daily news briefing on American politics, have teamed up to bring you the Diageo/Hotline Poll. The poll is conducted monthly by Financial Dynamics, a specialist communications consultancy, focusing public opinion research on important national issues to inform and stimulate debate.
Spirits, beer, and wine company? Well, polling for Republicans would make me want to drink heavily, so I can see that connection.... There is some interesting polling data on the front page, including some data on the "surge" poll featured on the front page in a PDF file: link to data and a poll archive that has nothing later than November 2006.
Now, to "Financial Dynamics:" Not much here besides corporate blither, and not a damn word about polling (maybe there's something on the site, but I didn't look too hard). I did see where Dick Gephardt's lobbying (?) firm signed on with FD to "provide advice and help serve clients globally in the critical areas of government, public policy, employee and labor relations and international affairs." Interesting, but not much help.
So who the hell is coming up with these MSNBC/Diageo polls, and why should we give them an ounce of credibility? If someone more knowledgeable than myself can find out, I'd love to know, and I think any of us who pay attention to MSNBC might be curious about the source and reliability of MSNBC's new poll honeys.