(Cross-posted from my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority.)
Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof's apparent interest in the Presidency of the University of Missouri has created quite a stir in the Show-Me-State recently. Last week Hulshof made the announcement:
From the Columbia Tribune:
"My professional career has been dedicated to public service," said Hulshof, who was elected to the House in 1996. "I consider this position a rare opportunity to extend this service in a unique way. It is one of the very few jobs for which I would consider leaving Congress."
Additionally, last week the National Examinerreported that Democras are intrigued by the possibility of another heartland pick up:
But Democrats, who gained a key U.S. Senate seat in Missouri last year when Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent, are intrigued by the idea of an unexpected seat suddenly in play.
"While we don't know what Hulshof will decide, what we do know is that Missourians are hungry for change," said Ryan Rudominer, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington. "Democrats have held this seat before and we certainly look forward to holding it again."
While it is certainly true that this is traditionally a Democratic seat, the Examiner appropriately states that this will be an uphill battle. In a district known as "Little Dixie," Conservative politicians have always been the norm. The Democrats held the seat for 76 years until Hulshof won it in 1996. However, according to the article, the district has become even more conservative since his election:
But the district has become even more conservative since the mid-1990s as it has expanded south of Interstate 70 to include areas like Hermann and Washington - areas represented by Republicans in the state Legislature.
So what are Holshof's chances? Do we have a legit open seat, pick up opportunity in Missouri's ninth district? Well the Congressman got a pretty good endorsement this weekend from The Missourian managing editor George Kennedy:
University presidents these days don’t have to be scholars. They have to be politicians and fundraisers. Six successful campaigns for Congress show that Kenny is adept at both. It helps, too, if they have some backbone. If you remember the stance he took on the House Ethics Committee, sanctioning the then all-powerful Tom Delay and losing his committee seat as a result, you might imagine that he’d do better at defending the university’s core principles than the most recent administration did. He said Wednesday, without being prompted, that the university’s independence has to be "fiercely protected." Sounded good to me.
While Kennedy's opinion on the role of a University President is not up for debate here (I disagree with him by the way), the article is a good case for Holshof's campaign.
Now to the part that matters the most: Can a Democrat win this seat?
I still to this day maintain that one of the biggest missteps of the Kerry Presidential campaign was not challenging Missouri harder. John Kerry lost Missouri by a 53-46 percentmargin in 2004, with the minimal amount of effort. In 2000 Gore lost Missouri to Bush by less than 3.5 percent! Considering that Clinton also won the state twice, why the Democrats have chosen to walk out on Missouri is a mystery to me.
Now statewide election results are far from the best way to judge this race, but considering the party is coming off a big year in 2006 that saw Claire McCaskill defeat Jim Talent in his bid for reelection to the Senate, state Democrats have good reason to be optomistic about this open seat. Combine that with the fact that they have a roster of potential candidates ready to step in that include former Governor and State Senators and the chances get even better.
State Senators Wes Shoemyerand Chuck Grahamwere floated around as potential candidates by the Examiner, but neither have publically expressed interest in running.
The big prize however, would be if the state party could somehow convince former Governor Roger Wilson to jump into the race. Wilson, who was only governor for a few months following Mel Carnahan's tragic death in a plane crash, never stood for election but was on the ballot as Carnahan's Lt. Governor in 1992 and 1996.
Located in the northeastern corner of the state, the district encompasses the town of Columbia - home to the University of Missouri. While on the ballot with Carnahan, the two owned the 9th district. While his success on a ticket with Carnahan gives Democrats tremendous confidence, it remains to be seen as to whether or not he can do it solo. But like Shoemyer and Graham, Wilson has not made any public pronouncements as to whether or not he is interested in the race.
Keep an eye on Hulshof and the University over the next few weeks, if he is offered and accepts the Presidency, this could be one of the hottest races of 2008.
To Donate.