This isn't a big surprise, but it's as definitive as anything we seen to date on Franken's expected challenge of Minnesota senator Norm Coleman. The Associated Press is reporting that Franken has just told top Democratic officials that he's in the race. An announcement is expected any day now.
I noted a post a few days ago that talked as if Franken was a shoe-in in Minnesota, but I'm not nearly as sanguine. I've lived in the state all my life and have reported on politics here for almost 20 years. I also sat in on a meeting between Franken and about a dozen northeastern Minnesota political activists last summer. I and others were less than impressed.
Franken will face a number of hurdles here. Minnesota certainly trends blue, but it's more populist than it is liberal, and Republicans will no doubt try to paint Franken as more a product of liberal Hollywood and New York (in other words, a limousine liberal, the kind we don't like in Minnesota) than of St. Louis Park, the Twin Cities suburb where he grew up.
Those kind of attacks are likely to stick in northeastern Minnesota (Duluth and the Iron Range) which is very rural and where we are very attached to our guns, motorboats, snowmobiles, and tend to be more socially conservative, like most rural voters. Despite that, the area generally votes 65-70 percent Democratic, depending on the candidate. That, combined with the fact that the region's voter turnout typically hits 90-plus percent in a presidential year, means the region is absolutely critical to the success of any statewide Democrat.
This was solid Wellstone country, because Wellstone was perceived (accurately) as a traditional populist, and that is the kind of politics that residents of this region appreciate. That means that being socially liberal isn't a problem if a candidate really reaches out on economic issues. That means fair trade and challenging an economic status quo that is undermining the middle class. I would anticipate Franken will sound these themes, but he's going to have a lot of work to do up in this region to overcome the inevitable GOP attacks.
Amy Klobuchar made it look too easy. Franken is likely to face a tougher road. I wish him luck, but he makes me nervous, because I'm not convinced he's our best bet to oust that worthless turd Coleman.