With the Iowa caucuses less than a month away everything is now in high gear. Barack Obama has received considerable press coverage about Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement tour. Less press has been devoted to the campaigning around Iowa by another heavy hitter, Bill Clinton. My question is this: Which person, Oprah Winfrey or Bill Clinton is likely to have a greater influence on those Democrats who will be at the caucuses on January 3, 2008?
Oprah or Bill??
Images New York Times, Reuters
(Images reduced to less than 300x200 pixels)
To begin with, it is necessary to identify who Iowa caucus goers might be. That is the sixty-four thousand dollar question. And I would be a rich pollster if I could do so with any degree of certainty. Still, there are some parameters that hold across election cycles.
First, caucus goers are only a small percentage of registered voters in Iowa. Only 60,000 participated in the Democratic caucuses in 2000. With a more exciting field in 2004, perhaps as many as 125,000 participated. At most, this represents about 15% of registered Democrats and 5% of Independents.
http://www.sos.state.ia.us/...
Second, they are older. In 2004, one estimate is that 14% were in the "17 to 24" category while almost 60% were in the "Over 50" category. What’s more, 2004 showed a sizeable jump in younger participation over early caucuses. This is one of the higher estimates for young voters.
http://www.pollster.com/...
And third, there is a minimum threshold in the precinct caucuses for candidates to gain seats to the county conventions – from 15% to 25% depending on number of delegates allotted. A key part of the caucus process is gaining the delegates of those candidates who do not reach the threshold. Rarely do these delegates remain uncommitted.
http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/...
What about the first component of the caucuses – the relatively small number of participants? The people who come to the Democratic caucuses are those Democrats with the highest level of commitment to the Democratic Party. Among Independents, they are those with the highest level of interest in the political process combined with a willingness to identify, perhaps temporarily, as a Democrat. Now I’m not sure about Oprah Winfrey’s Democratic credentials, but she said that she has voted for as many Republicans as Democrats over the years. Bill Clinton is a Democrat’s Democrat. Who do you think is more likely to influence the still undecided Democratic caucus goer? Oprah or Bill??
What about the second component of the caucuses – demographics? Argue as you will, caucus goers will be older than average. These Democrats remember Reaganomics. They remember the Clinton years. They have a track record not only of voting Democratic, but also of participating in the political process to a far greater degree than the average voter. And prior participation is the strongest predictor of participation in the 2008 caucuses. What might influence a greater number of caucus goers? The record of the Clinton administration or a promise on an Oprah ticket stub??
What about the third component of the caucuses – the threshold? Hillary Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all likely to be above the threshold in most precincts. Richardson is only polling in the high single-digits. In most precincts his supporters will be forced to choose among the top three. Who might they choose? Who will more likely influence them? Let’s see. On the one hand, Richardson appeared on the "Oprah Show" in 1999 to quell the Y2K hysteria. On the other hand, Richardson was in the Clinton administration first as U.N Ambassador and then as Secretary of Energy. Prior to that, he had worked closely with the Clinton administration in Congress. Richardson has the most foreign policy experience of any of the Democratic candidates. Who might influence Richardson supporters more? Oprah or Bill??
Make no mistake about it. Bill Clinton is every bit as media-savvy as Oprah Winfrey. He can wow them on the tube, but more importantly, he can also wow them in person – perhaps better than Oprah. The Clinton crowds may be in the hundreds while the Oprah crowds were in the thousands, but Bill Clinton will be there for the long haul – not just for a few mega-events. And Bill Clinton will ultimately influence those Iowans who count – those Democrats who will be at the caucuses on January 3rd.
UPDATED -
In a New York Times poll, Bill is more influential than Oprah among Dems by a margin of 44% to 1%.
http://www.nytimes.com/...