(Cross-posted at Blue Hampshire)
Saw this little blurb in the last hour. A new ARG poll is being reported in tonight's online Union Leader:
Manchester - A new poll to be released tomorrow shows Republican Sen. John Sununu has taken over the lead in next year's likely U.S. Senate race against Democratic former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
The American Research Group polled 558 likely voters Dec. 16-19 and found Sununu with 52 percent, Shaheen with 41 percent and 7 percent undecided. Earlier ARG polls showed Shaheen leading Sununu, most recently by 46 to 41 percent in September.
http://www.unionleader.com/...
What do you think? Overall, 6 polls have been done on this race (3 by ARG, 1 by Ramussen, 1 by SurveyUSA, and 1 by UNH Survey Center). The previous polls in this race over the past 9 months have shown Shaheen leading anywhere from 5% to 28%.
The most recent polls in October and November had Shaheen leading by 16% and 11% (SurveyUSA and UNH Survey Center). Shaheen was above 50% in both and Sununu was below 43%. Is this ARG poll an outlier? Bad methodology? The internals will likely be out tomorrow. It's also worth noting that ARG had Shaheen leading Sununu by 28% in June and now has her down by 11%? Seems ridiculous to me when the campaign hasn't even started.
More strange numbers from this poll, John Lynch only leading Frank Guinta 48% to 32% in the 2008 governors race? This is the guy who just won re-election with 75% of the vote against Guinta, a not so-well known guy statewide who won re-election as mayor with only 54% of the vote.
ARG also polled a hypothetical governor's race pitting Republican Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta against Democratic Gov. John Lynch. The poll shows Lynch leading, 48 to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided.
http://www.unionleader.com/...