In today's testimony, Gen. Petraeus framed the status of U.S. military involvement in Iraq as follows: We are doing well enough militarily that we can begin now to draw down 30,000 troops by July of 2008.
We should accept that framing.
That is not to say that we should explicitly agree with or endorse all of what Petraeus is saying. We should not. What is important, though, is that we accept the second half of Petraeus' framing: That we can now begin to draw down forces. There is no need to get up into the General's or wingnutters' faces at this time to try to shout them down that things are not going well in Iraq. The likely response to that is, "Oh, yeah? Then we need to keep force levels up or even increase them until we are sure that things are going well."
Consider these two questions from the latest CBS/NYT poll:
- As you may know, a report about the situation in Iraq by General David Petraeus, the Commander of U.S. forces, and others is scheduled to be released next week. If the report says that the situation in Iraq is IMPROVING, what should the U.S. do next: should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq? QUESTIONS 83-84 WERE ROTATED.
9/4-8/07
Increase 6%
Keep the same 32%
Decrease 39%
Remove all troops 17%
DK/NA 6%
- If the report says that the situation in Iraq is GETTING WORSE, what should the U.S. do next: should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq? QUESTIONS 83-84 WERE ROTATED.
9/4-8/07
Increase 16%
Keep the same 27%
Decrease 25%
Remove all troops 22%
DK/NA 9%
Please note that if people think the situation in Iraq is getting worse instead of better, then more people think troop levels should increase, fewer people think some or all of the troops should be removed, and more people think that troop levels should stay the same or increase.
Fighting against the notion that things are getting better is counter-productive to the goal of getting U.S. troops out of Iraq at this time.
Petraeus and his supporters are currently engaged in a bit of declaring victory and bringing the troops home. Let them. They are beginning to bring the troops home. Instead of insisting that the victory claims are bogus, we should concentrate on solidifying the notion that troop levels have peaked, that they are on a downward trend, that we are ratcheting down our force levels in Iraq, etc. The goal is to fix the idea in the conventional wisdom that we are drawing down and will continue to draw down forces, and that we will not again increase troop levels in the foreseeable future.
There is no need to fight against Petraeus and his supporters until next July.
If they want to continue to declare victory and continue to bring the troops home after July, let them. They would be bringing the troops home.
If they want to retain or increase troops after July, that is when we need to be prepared to fight them. The only way they can make their case at that time is to declare that things were going well, but that they aren't any longer, so we cannot bring any more troops home. That is when we need to make the argument that, no, things weren't going well previously; your previous numbers and claims were bogus, and here is exactly why...; not only that, but things are continuing to go badly, cannot be improved with a lower force level than was previously ineffective, and we are not going to increase troop levels; so we must continue to bring the troops home.
In short, don't fight their framing while it is achieving our goal of bringing the troops home; don't endorse the part of their framing that we don't agree with (that things are going well in Iraq); do endorse the part of their framing that we do agree with (that it is time to start bringing the troops home), but seek to shape that part to support our further goals (that the draw down will continue, that it is inevitable, that troop levels will only ratchet down, never increase, etc.); and be ready to destroy their frame and strongly assert our own when their framing is no longer useful (probably next July.)