The Administration’s strategy to justify staying in Iraq is that "only p*****s want to leave Iraq." I know, Petraeus and Crocker’s testimony will be an "important" event, but the fact is that there are a lot of "serious" people who are going to spend a vast amount of energy arguing about an issue that is over. After which, Democrats will cave for fear of being labeled and the Administration will get another continuance, probably six months, with no conditions. None. Everything will remain the same for another six months because some are afraid to confront stupidity for fear of being labeled a pussy. It’s the emperor-with-no-clothes daring the crowd to call him naked and winning.
So, for the next six months expect improvements in some areas of Iraq and increased problems in other areas, but the changes will be at the margins. The big picture, which no one seems to want to look at, is that this is a mess and it’s not going to get better irrespective as to what goes on in the next six months, year or ten years. The country isn’t going to become unified. Shias, Sunnis and Kurds aren’t going to suddenly start loving each other. The country isn’t going to govern itself. The country isn’t going to be a democracy. The government is never going to be strong enough to protect itself. The country is going to split into three areas and is likely going to be the site for a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And, we are never going to get their oil. Iraq is the gift that keeps on giving – if you are Iran. Iraq is the gift that keeps on giving – if you are an Islamic, religious zealot recruiter. Iraq is the gift that keeps on giving if you own oil.
Ironically, the Administrations tact is to call all dissenters p*****s, but change of any kind in Iraq is going to come from those who have guts and say that the emperor has no clothes and then does something about it. The fact is that there are a lot of "serious" people who are going to spend a vast amount of energy arguing about an issue that is irrelevant. The question shouldn’t be what to do for the next six months, the question should be how do we get out of this mess without making things worse, because my guess is every day we stay is one more day we make that things worse. We may not know how we are making it worse, but if the Law of Unintended Consequences applies anywhere, it applies in Iraq. It has all along and I see no reason why it would suddenly stop.