Much like a doctor on ER I called the time of death of he New York Republican Party tonight at 9:38 pm EST. That was the moment that there was no way in hell that they could win the state Senate special election we weren't even supposed to be competitive in, yet were running away with. This one was supposed to be a walk for the GOP. It wasn't.
More on the flip...
As many of you know, the GOP controls our state Senate. For those that didn't know this, I'm not making it up. They have a majority in the New York state Senate and have had it for essentially the last century or better. Through ridiculous gerrymandering and various other incumbent protection schemes, they control our upper chamber, even though we have a 5-3 registration advantage, an advantage that grows everyday. Tonight, their advantage dwindled from two seats to one.
The seat at issue tonight has been in republican hands since, get this 1880. The seat opened up when the incumbent retired, but did so in a manner that prevented our governor, Eliot Spitzer, from piggybacking the special election to replace him on the same date as our Super Tuesday primary. Lot of good that did them.
They picked a candidate, the son of a former Senator from that district, Assemblyman Will Barclay, and figured that their 40K registration advantage meant that they would run away with this sucker.
Dems chose Darrel Aubertien, a lifelong dairy farmer. He was supposed to be stomped by the GOP in a district they have dominated for over a century, a huge district with more livestock than people.
Tonight, he and a people powered army handed the GOP their asses on a silver platter and, in the process, essentially killed the New York Republican Party. No joke.
Our chances of retaking our state Senate just went from "possible/probable" to "dead freaking certain." And they know it. They also know that once their majority disappears, it's not likely to come back for a generation or three.
It's hard for me to overstate what happened tonight. First, we were never supposed to win this thing. It was never supposed to be close. Second, we won it rather handily, showing the rest of the state (and, more specifically, the rest of the GOP caucus in our state Senate) that their days are over. There isn't a GOP Senator in New York who has ever spent a day in the minority. I suspect most them would never want to. I imagine there could be a rash of retirements on their side in the coming days, making their slim one seat majority all the more tenuous.
The writing is on the wall for all to see. It's over for them and everybody knows it.
The New York Republican Party was mortally wounded tonight.
The prognosis is dire...