I'm the kind of guy who gets motivated when I have a point to make. I don't blog too often, but that's because things have been going well. Obama's fundraising has been off the charts, he has a clear path to the nomination, our candidates for congress have fundraising off the charts from the first quarter of 2008, and it looks to be an amazing election cycle. Who can complain? I'm certainly not. But yesterday that changed. Follow me after the jump!
I feel as though I have been slapped in the face. I have a personal list of how I rank the senate, house, and governor's races for 2008. It changes based on recruitment, fundraising, and the district. So when I saw that Congressional Quarterly had LA-06 ranked as a toss-up, I agreed with them. In the middle of my list, it reads:
- Louisiana-06*** (R+7) Special Election - May
- - - --->Don Cazayoux (D) v. Woody Jenkins (R)
Total Raised ---- $612,745 v. $324,835
Cash On Hand - $159,870 v. $57,221
(Toss Up) (3/31/08)
*** = retirement/open seat
(3/31/08) = when the fundraising numbers were last reported
So yesterday, to my suprise, when I checked the CQ Politics map found Here
You can see LA-06 is now labeled:
Race Forecast: Leans Republican
Also in the news is this report that is being passed around the blogs:
Portions of a GOP poll conducted March 17-18 and obtained by Roll Call showed Jenkins down three points in a head-to-head matchup with Cazayoux. That's not great math to begin with in a district that gave President Bush a 19-point margin of victory in the 2004 presidential campaign and repeatedly sent former Rep. Richard Baker (R) to Congress by large margins.
But the numbers get worse when looking at specific important voting blocs in the Baton Rouge-based 6th district. Men 55 and older preferred Cazayoux 51 percent to 38 percent, voters who turned out in the special March primary would vote for Cazayoux 53 percent to 39 percent and those voters who said they are definitely going to vote in the special preferred Cazayoux by nine points.
Link Here
We're polling ahead in a R+10 district, by cutting into the GOP's base of support. We are outfundraising the presumptual nominee and chronic campaign loser: Woody Jenkins.
So this is my proposal. On Sunday, assuming Cazayoux wins the runoff, we have a fundraiser, which aims to raise $20,000. The goal is to get 1,000 people chip in $20. This will be a message to CQ Politics that this race is a toss-up. A message to the NRCC that if they put their hand in this race, the blogosphere is ready to bite. Like a dog chasing a mailman, they don't want to stop by this house while making their rounds next month.
So this is what is going to happen. This will be the first time I'm fundraising for someone on Actblue, and I want you to help me pick a title! I'll blog again on Sunday, and we will hold our victory fundraiser online with the page up on Actblue.
If you want to stop by Don Cayazoux's website before then, click here.