Feel free to comment, share opinions. There are a lot more house races and it's harder to draw clear distinctions when ranking them compared to ranking the US Senate races. I am posting this to get feedback, and to compare information.
I also don't want the diary to be too long, so I'm not going to post financial information on here, but I will link SSP's two diaries.
Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c... (Everything except IN and NC)
And Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c... (IN and NC)
*** = Retiring Incumbent/Open Seat
====House Republicans====
- New York-25*** (D+3)
Dan Maffei v. ???
- Illinois-11*** (R+1)
Debbie Halvorson v. ???
- New Jersey-03*** (D+3)
John Adler v. Chris Myers
- Arizona-01*** (R+2)
Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay
- New Jersey-07*** (R+1)
Linda Stender v. Kate Whitman
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- Minnesota-03*** (R+1)
Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson
- Michigan-07 (R+2)
Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg
- New York-26*** (R+3)
Jon Powers v. ???
- Ohio-15*** (R+1)
Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers
- Ohio-16*** (R+4)
John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring
- Alabama-02*** (R+13)
Bobby Bright v. Harri Anne Smith
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- Louisiana-06*** (R+7) Special Election - May 3rd
Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins
- New York-29 (R+5)
Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl
- Washington-08 (D+2)
Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert
- Missouri-06 (R+5)
Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves
- Florida-24 (R+3)
Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney
- Alaska-AL (R+14)
Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young
- Virginia-11*** (R+1)
Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian
- Connecticut-04 (D+5)
Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays
- North Carolina-08 (R+3)
Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes
- Michigan-09 (R+0)
Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg
- Illinois-10 (D+4)
Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk
- Virginia-05 (R+6)
Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode
- Nevada-03 (D+1)
Robert Daskas v. Representative Jon Porter
- New Mexico-01*** (D+2)
Martin Heinrich v. Darren White
- Mississippi-01*** (R+10) Special Election - May 13th
Travis Childers v. Greg Davis
- Missouri-09*** (R+7)
Robert Gaw v. Bob Onder
- Colorado-04 (R+9)
Beth Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave
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- Louisiana-04*** (R+7)
Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman
- Ohio-01 (R+1)
Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot
- Wyoming-AL*** (R+19)
Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon
- California-04*** (R+11)
Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock
- Idaho-01 (R+19)
Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali
- Ohio-02 (R+13)
Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmitt
- Arizona-03 (R+6)
Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg
- West Virginia-02 (R+5)
Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore
- Virginia-02 (R+6)
Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake
- Florida-13 (R+4)
Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanon
- Pennsylvania-15 (D+2)
Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent
- Texas-10 (R+13)
Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul
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- New Mexico-02*** (R+6)
Bill McCamley v. Ed Tinsley
- Ohio-14 (R+2)
William O'Neill v. Representative Steven Latourette
- New Jersey-05 (R+4)
Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett
- Texas-07 (R+16)
Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson
- California-50 (R+5)
Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray
- Florida-21 (R+6)
Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart
- Florida-08 (R+3)
Charles Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller
- Nevada-02 (R+8)
Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller
- Florida-25 (R+4)
Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart
- Alabama-03 (R+4)
Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers
- Florida-18 (R+4)
Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen
- Illinois-06 (R+3)
Jill Morgenthaler v. Representative Peter Roskam
- Indiana-03 (R+16)
Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder
- Indiana-04 (R+17)
Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer
- California-26 (R+4)
Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier
- Pennsylvania-03
Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English
- Pennsylvania-18
Steve O'Donnell v. Representative Tim Murphy
- Illinois-18*** (R+5)
Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock
- Pennsylvania-05*** (R+10)
Mark McCracken v. Glenn Thompson
- Florida-10 (D+1)
Linn Max v. Representative Bill Young
====House Democrats====
- Oregon-05*** (D+1)
Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson
- Texas-22 (R+15)
Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson
- Kansas-02 (R+7)
Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun
- Florida-16 (R+2)
Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey
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- Alabama-05*** (R+6)
Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker
- Georgia-08 (R+8)
Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard
- Kentucky-03 (D+2)
Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup
- Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)
Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart
- New Hampshire-01 (R+0)
Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Joe Bradley
- Indiana-09 (R+7)
Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel
- Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)
Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett
- Arizona-08 (R+1)
Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee
- New York-20 (R+3)
Representative Kristen Gellibrand v. Alexander Treadwell
- Indiana-08 (R+9)
Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode
- California-11 (R+3)
Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal
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- Arizona-05 (R+4)
Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert
- Connecticut-05 (D+4)
Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello
- Connecticut-02 (D+8)
Representative Joe Courtney v. Sean Sullivan
- North Carolina-11 (R+7)
Representative Heath Schuler v. Spence Campbell
- Texas-23 (R+4)
Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson
- Wisconsin-08 (R+4)
Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard
- Ohio-18 (R+6)
Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey
- Georgia-12 (D+2)
Representative John Barrow v. John Stone
- Indiana-02 (R+4)
Representative Joe Donnelly v. Luke Puckett
- Minnesota-01 (R+10)
Representative Tim Walz v. Dick Day
- New York-19 (R+1)
Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor
Notes:
- In contests where the primary has not yet occured, I have picked the person who has fundraised the most.
- 60 Vulnerable/Potentially Vulnerable House Republicans
- Prediction is 20-30 Democratic pickups in the US House
- Current Breakdown of the US House 234D-198R Representatives (3 Outstanding)
- Projected Outcome of the US House 256D-179R Representatives
- 25 Retiring Republicans
Tiers:
(Republicans)
Tier 1 - Races #1-#5 = Likely Democratic Pickup
Tier 2 - Races #6-#11 = Lean Democratic Pickup
Tier 3 - Races #12-#28 = Toss Up
Tier 4 - Races #29-#40 = Lean Republican Retention
Tier 5 - Races #41-#60 = Likely Republican Retention
(Democrats)
Tier 1 - Races #1-#4 = Toss Up
Tier 2 - Races #5-#15 = Lean Democratic Retention
Tier 3 - Races #16-#26 = Likely Democratic Retention