Colorado appears to be a bellweather state AND a state in which the tide may be turning for Democrats. Yet it is a difficult state for Democrats to win. Remember, Bush beat Kerry by 5% in 2004 and Gore by 9% in 2000.
1992 1996 2000 2004
Rep 36 46 51 52
Dem 40 44 42 47
Ind 23 7 5 1
So the Democrats will have to scrap for Colorado and capitalize on the record turnout in the February caucuses.
If Democrats expect to have a fighting chance for Colorado's 8 electoral votes, one thing is clear: Barack Obama has a far better chance of winning them than Hillary Clinton does:
2/14 3/6(USA) 3/19 4/18
Obama 46 50 46 46
McCain (vs. Obama) 39 41 46 43
Clinton 35 42 38 36
McCain (vs. Clinton) 49 48 52 50
Also remember that polling heavily favored Hillary Clinton all the way up to the caucuses, where she was trounced.
Democratic candidates statewide have got to be concerned about coattails in this race, but it hasn't shown up yet, as the candidate for the open US Senate seat (Mark Udall) sits on the sidelines. While it is comforting to hear rumors that Udall is a closet Obama supporter, the question remains: What's keeping him?
It's really one thing if Clinton wins the nomination fair and square, which may keep the party together and bring out that record number of new Democrats that she will undoubtedly need to overcome the wingers that will come out against her. It's another if she maneuvers Obama out of the nomination and the Black vote in Denver stays at home and the Caucus wave simply stays home. That would be a disaster for Democrats in Colorado generally, even more, really, than for Clinton herself. She may turn her back on Colorado's 8 electoral votes, but Mark Udall probably can't afford that kind of mess.
Which brings us to the other major concern: the Convention. Colorado will get more of a direct impact from the convention than other states. It's almost bound to be a negative impact. If Obama doesn't go into the convention with the nomination, there are bound to be demonstrations and Denver will be political disaster for Colorado Democrats. Again, if Clinton can get the nomination fair and square, it may be a different story, but as this is almost a mathematical impossibility already, I'd have to say that nothing good can come from the convention, at least nothing good for Colorado Democrats.
So, if I were a bookie, here would be the line (all handicaps would be against 50%+1):
McCain: -2
Obama: +1
Clinton: +7
Nader: +49
Any takers?