This weekend, I attended a party of a friend of a friend. This friend-friend is one of those die hard conservatives. The proud 30% of Americans who still loves Bush. And, the type of person who the Palin Pander was aimed at.
Friend-friend was raving about this pick. "She got more experience than Obama" and "This actually reinforces the experience argument of McCain" and the like. His equally conservative wife chimed in with a "Her being mayor is certainly more important that being in some state legislator." I gently argued, but since it was (1) their party and (2) simply pointless to convince them otherwise, I didn't push the issue much.
But, then, he said something monumental:
"You know, I like this pick so much, I think I might put a McCain yard sign in my yard. I wasn't going to before, but I think I might now."
What? I had to probe. So I asked what he meant by this comment. And he betrayed that he wasn't jazzed about McCain given his past.
I said, like "the amnesty bill"?
Him: "Yes!"
Me: "And campaign finance"?
Him: "Oh, don't get me started on that one!"
Me: "And opposing the Bush tax cuts"
Him: "Well, he supports them now."
Me: "Sure, when he wanted to win the primary."
Him: "You know what I really, hated, that Gang of 14 move. Jeez!"
And I had him. He went from raving about Palin and dreaming of a McCain-Palin yard sign to going back to unenthusiastic about his nominee. I had stuck in the dagger deep. And it was time to twist the knife.
Me: "You know, McCain is such a maverick, he's going to probably keep being that RINO you hate if he wins the presidency. He's going to want to bucking the GOP and making compromises on judges and taxes and all that to keep his maverick credentials. He wouldn't have to win a primary again, so he'd be all moderate like Clinton triangulated in his second term. Sounds like you're in for a bait-and-switch, if you ask me."
It was all I had to say. There was a meager rebuttal that maybe Palin would keep McCain in line, and I laughed. He knew that Palin didn't have the stature or relationships or frankly anything to keep a President McCain from deserting the base. In fact, she was pretending to be a McCain moderate maverick now herself, I noted. He was firmly back in the not-enthused camp. But to make sure that yard sign never went up, I went for the kill:
Me: "The thing is, it would be a shame if he got elected after screwing you guys all those years on judges and taxes and all that. I mean, what kind of a message does that send: act like a RINO for 20 years, pretend you're a conservative for a few months to win a primary, and then go back to being a RINO during the general election and presidency? You'll have a lot of little McCains sprout up all over the GOP, when they see this sort of behavior rewarded by the base."
If he had been holding a McCain yard sign in his hands at that point, I firmly believe he would've ripped it up right then and there.
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After this conversation, I'm now convinced that "the Palin Pander" was probably the worst decision in modern political history. Set aside the fact that she's utterly unappealing to independents and women for being an unvetted secessionist ultra-conservative who was for pork funding and lied about it. The true aim of the pander -- the conservative base -- will have a temporary high with her pick but will come depressingly back down to earth once they remember the person at the top of the ticket. They'll hear the word "maverick" in commercials and the debates and ads, and they'll remember what that word means to them: A person they've considered a betraying RINO for years. A person who almost picked a pro-choicer as a running mate. A person who opposed Bush's tax cuts before he was against them, sponsored an "amnesty bill" before he was against his own bill, was for compromising on judges before he Saddlebacked over to wanting Roe overturned, and so on and so on.
So, if you run into any friend-friends like this, or any freeper email groups or websites or whatever, remind the 30%-ers that Palin is simply a meaningless sop to the base. The person that matter is Senator Amnesty of the Gang of 14. And that Senator is now trying to prove that you only have to pander to the conservative base for a couple of months during primary season, and then return to screwing them maverick-style. Bait-and-switch, indeed.
Note: The quotes above are paraphrases based on my memory of the converation.