Bounce? Gone.... Palin? Bust....
(CBS) In a sign that John McCain's convention bounce has dissipated, Barack Obama has taken a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over his Republican rival among registered voters in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
In the new poll, the gap among likely voters is the same as it is among registered voters: Obama leads among those seen as likely to go to the polls in November 49 percent to 44 percent.
WHY? HOW? WHO?
While Palin remains popular among McCain voters, the poll suggests that the McCain campaign may have cause for concern. More than half of registered voters do not think Palin is prepared for the job of Vice President, and even McCain supporters cite “inexperience” as what they like least about her.
Palin’s favorable rating stands at 40 percent, down 4 points from last week. Her unfavorable rating, which stands at 30 percent, has risen eight points in the same time period. Her favorable rating among women has fallen 11 points in the past week.
Actual details... Taken 9/12-9/16
Obama: 49% (44%)
McCain: 44% (46%)
and what about white women...
Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama's direction from one week ago.
Regarding Change:
Obama: 65%
McCain: 37% (60% say No Change OUCH!)
and Among Independents on who will bring change.
Obama: 61%
McCain: 35%
And on whose a Maverick... Obama is viewed as a "different kind of Democrat" by 47% of voters, while McCain is viewed as a "Maverick" by only 40%; 57% view him as a typical republican.
Just one poll... Yada Yada Yada...
But have you seen the shift in Pollster???
or nate's language???
There are certainly some hints that Barack Obama has gained back a couple of points' worth of ground in the past 24-96 hours, although so far this remains more apparent in the national trackers than in state polling. Our model is designed to react somewhat conservatively to new information, lest it mistake noise for signal. I know that a lot of Democrats out there -- including myself, frankly -- believe that the movement is real, as the country reacts to the Wall Street crisis and other news from the campaign trail.
Official Obama Plan for victory:
- Take lead today
- Stay on Offensive until we win!
Bonus Interview Video