So, did anything happen today??!!??
But seriously folks...we are starting to get a little bit of an indication of what the polling landscape is hardening into, and it is reasonably good news for the Democrats. While the political gymnastics of the bailout/rescue plan continue to shake up the electoral calculus, it seems for the moment that people are projecting their own political ideology onto the crisis. GOPers are convinced that this is all Nancy Pelosi's fault, while Dems look at that John McCain leadership as a cause for the mess we are in. Indies, for the moment, are holding their fire, it seems, although more seem to be blaming Republicans than Democrats for the current sorry state of affairs.
So, what of the numbers?? Well, we see some interesting dynamics in the tracking numbers, plus new numbers to digest from 24 separate individual polls. And all of it is on the other side...
PRESIDENTIAL TRACKING AND NATIONAL DATA
Only one national poll came in over the past 24 hours, and it shows a slight movement to Obama since the debates. LA Times and Bloomberg combined on a poll which gave Obama a 49-44 lead over the Republican nominee. It also gave Obama a very narrow (33-29) victory in the debates, according to those asked.
Meanwhile, the tracking showed very little movement overnight, but I suspect that might be very good news for Obama. Research 2000 has the race at Obama +9, a two point improvement for the Democrat over Sunday's totals. The reason for this is evident, thanks to the transparency of the tracking that Kos insisted upon. Why the big jump? A four-point Obama lead from Thursday was phased out, replaced by an eleven-point Obama lead yesterday.
As for the other three trackers, very little changed. McCain recovered a point in Rasmussen tracking (now it is Obama +5), but that may very well have been a function of a very good Obama day from Thursday dropping off, since Obama went from 3 to 5 points based on that Thursday total. Meanwhile, Hotline and Gallup held steady at 5 and 8 points, respectively.
Both of these polls gained three points on Friday, based on the strength of Obama in Thursday night polling which fell out of the rotation today.
The bottom line--there is very little bad news in today's tracking for Obama, and very little in the way of good news for the Republicans.
PRESIDENTIAL STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
The primary story (already diaried today) was the release of Rasmussen/Fox News' battleground polls in the five swing states. One (Pennsylvania) is hard to still define as a swing state, but the others are within three points, according to the usually conservative Rasmussen. Virtually all of today's polls, however, show momentum towards Obama, including in swing states like Florida and North Carolina. Other blue states that were in doubt, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, are starting to look more secure. In all, momentum swings to Obama in eight states polled today, while only Colorado swings to McCain (and only slightly, at that).
(NOTE: A new indicator of momentum: momentum will now be based on the poll numbers in a state, as compared to the Pollster trend estimates for each state)
COLORADO--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 48% (McCain)
FLORIDA #1--SurveyUSA: McCain 48%, Obama 47% (Obama)
FLORIDA #2--Rasmussen: Obama 47%, McCain 47%
MICHIGAN--G.Q.R. (D): Obama 49%, McCain 42% (Obama)
NEW JERSEY--SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 42% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA--PPP: Obama 47%, McCain 45% (Obama)
OHIO--Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Muhlenberg College: Obama 49%, McCain 42% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
TENNESSEE--Middle Tennessee St: McCain 48%, Obama 36% (Obama)
VIRGINIA--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47% (Obama)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
House polling released today is all over the map, showing the lack of cohesion that suggests that many of these races are in campaigns that are not fully joined, as of yet. If Democrats are heartened by the results in FL-25 or PA-10, they should also be a bit apprehensive about results released today in CT-04 and NJ-03.
Meanwhile, on the statewide election front, a Democratic internal poll seems to indicate that Georgia is not dead yet as a possible 60th seat for the Democrats, while North Carolina is looking better and better for the Dems, as well.
CT-02--Dineen and Associates: Rep. Joe Courtney (D) 53%, Sean Sullivan (R) 20%
CT-04--Dineen and Associates: Rep. Chris Shays (R) 52%, Jim Himes (D) 31%
FL-09--Momentum Analysis (D): Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R) 45%, Bill Mitchell (D) 22%
FL-25--Research 2000: Rep. Mario Diaz Balart (R) 45%, Joe Garcia (D) 41%
GA-SEN--Mellman Group (D): Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 37%, Jim Martin (D) 34%
IA-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Tom Harkin (D) 54%, Chris Reed (R) 40%
NJ-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 51%, Dick Zimmer (R) 38%
NJ-01--Zogby: Rep. Rob Andrews (D) 73%, Dale Glading (R) 15%
NJ-02--Zogby: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 62%, David Kurkowski (D) 26%
NJ-03--Zogby: Chris Myers (R) 39%, John Adler (D) 37%
NC-SEN--PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 46%, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) 38%
PA-10--Lycoming College: Rep. Chris Carney (D) 46%, Chris Hackett (R) 36%
TN-SEN--Middle Tennessee St: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) 50%, Bob Tuke (D) 26%