Tremors indicate change in the political landscape; securing long-term sources of energy will be far more important to most voters November 2008 than any discussion of leaving Iraq.
The S&P 500 lost 7.75, or 0.6 percent, to 1,373.2 and is down 6.5 percent in 2008, marking its worst-ever 11-day start to a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34.95, or 0.3 percent, to 12,466.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 23, or 1 percent, to 2,394.59. Asia's benchmark dropped to its lowest level since August and Europe's fell for the fifth time in six days, deepening a global sell-off that's wiped out $2.58 trillion in value this year.
America's priorities are changing. Bonddad is talking about recession. Many really do want to move-on. Friends calling for impeachment won't find this very funny. Folks are scared.
"It's obviously treacherous out there...There's not a whole lot of places to hide..."
Now come reports from the IMF and UN of a good year for Iraq, with '8% growth' predicted for 2008. Blowing smoke? The BBC reporter acidly observes that the report seems to based on 'a few good weeks'. Judge for yourself:
The UN's Staffan de Mistura said he would present a positive picture of progress in Iraq in a report to the UN Security Council despite earlier serious misgivings
"At the beginning of [2007]... we were genuinely concerned by the lack of progress on national dialogue," he told Reuters news agency by telephone.
"Today that has substantially changed. It has changed our mind from being worried or from being pessimistic."
The UN report would, he said, "compliment" Iraq's government on its work at fostering reconciliation.
"Iraq needs to maintain the momentum, 2008 is going to be a crucial year," Mr de Mistura added.
Why is the rosy report on Iraq important? Because voters don't care about arm-twisting. Americans understand deep in their hearts that the short-term economic well-being of the United States demands stable sources of oil. The evidence confirms Americans are quite willing to turn a blind eye to all manner of hand-holding, torture, and de-capitations, and murder if the pay-off is an affordable, reliable supply of energy.
Because, recession, the possibility of a cold winter, and concerns about jobs and the economic well-being of the average voter will re-cast Iraq in a different mold. The surge will have done enough.
'The price we have to pay' will replace the glowing rhetoric of 'Mission Accomplished' and 'bringing democracy to the region.' Americans have never been particularly concerned with bringing democracy to the region, the record shows. Dropping that sham will be easy for businesses and struggling American families concerned with fuel bills.
...the consumer looks weak right now...
This diary is not about any individual candidate or her/his abilities. I've said it before and I'll say it again: the only way I'll be sorry in November 2008 is if Dems somehow find a way to lose.
Change is what Americans are looking for. Candidates who remind voters of the past, I'm thinking most of Rudi, here, are in trouble. Huckabee, a fresh face like Romney and even the old war-horse McCain each offer stability; as well as a different sort of appeal. Republicans are divided. However, the last week and continuing acrimony here suggest Dems are far from united.
Our obligations and our security in the region have a timeless resonance. These terms will serve Republicans well through-out the cycle, and at least until November. Dems need to make them their own because cheap fuel is far more important to most Americans than bringing the troops home.