I've been meaning to write a detailed and incisive prediction of the 2008 election cycle for months. Of course, real life kept getting in the way of that loft goal. So today I will settle for making my humble predeictiosn about tonight, and the coming weeks for both parties. This is an extrardinarily uninspiring idea for a diary but I want some way to record what I have in my head.
I think the top three campaigns can be summed up as: Things were better when my half of the political clan was in charge, I'm going to change the way things are done in Washington and whatever you want to hear, I will tell you.
Naturally, I think the middle assertion is the most important and compelling. I support Barrack Obama because I think he will change the way things are done in Washington. He will break the mold of the past 2 decades and govern with genunine progressive principles and an acute ear for the poltical center.
Obama: 35
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 20
Richardson: 6
Biden: 5
Dodd: 3
Kucinich: 2
They then will move on to NH where either Obama will win narrowly and thereby cinch the nomination or HRC will will nin narrowly and thereby revive the Comeback kid narrative-making Nevad and South Carolina very important. (Ultimately, Obama will be the nominee. But winning IA & NH would push Richardson, Dodd adn Biden out of the race and into his camp. Edwards will run until his last breath leaves him.)
For the GOP, I have expected Huck to be the nominee all along. Today, I'm not so sure. But I do think he will hold of Iowa mostly because their base can not quite bring themselve to support a Mormon.
Huckabee: 34
Romney: 31
McCain: 12
Paul: 12
Thompson: 6
Giuliani: 4
Various other weirdos: 1
The big news here will be third place. 3rd place will be a God send for McCain because he barely competes in Iowa. It will also be a GREAT sign for the future of American politics-if even a tiny niche of Iowa voter can get over their addiction to ethanol subsidies, then maybe they are on their way out. (I'm including Paul in this trend, of course.)
I have Paul and McCain each getting 12, but McCain ranked ahead of Paul because I do expect him to nose out the bronze contest. Paul is only polling in the mid single digits but I have to say that I have seen 10 Paul signs for every Romney I've seen this campaign. His people will turn up and I suspect he is under-polling b/c he frankly attracts a weird fringe of people who probably are under represented in scientific polling.
They then will go to NH, where Romney will need a win to keep his campaign alive. He won't get it. The combination of an effortless 3rd place finish and the endorsement of Fred Thompson will push him to the win there. Romney will take second. Giullian will probably finish 3rd but he will need to look out for Rep. Paul. NH isn't the Live Free or Die State for nothing.