Even though it's happened in the past, a lot of us have nevertheless been surprised at how a victory in one small rural state, where less than 20% of the population votes, can radically transform a presidential race.
However, for an even greater shock, look beneath the fold.
This map indicates which counties were won by Obama (41), Edwards (29), and Clinton (25), with four of them tied. Note the strong preponderance of Obama wins in Eastern Iowa, which is the portion of the state that either borders or is closest to Illinois. If you factor out the Eastern portion and consider only the results in the Central or Western portions of the state, both Clinton and Edwards carry more counties than Obama.
In other words, if you take away Obama's geographic advantage of coming from a neighboring state, it's unclear if he would have won at all!!
And this analysis actually understates the situation, because the advantages of coming from a neighboring state are not limited to the neighboring region, but they extend throughout the state. However, they are undoubtedly strongest in the neighboring region, so this map is useful for showing the benefits that Obama got from that.
There you have it. One state, in which Obama had serious advantages due to its geographic location, may have handed him the Democratic nomination. That would be kind of like handing Hillary the nomination after a single primary in New Jersey! Pretty fair, huh?
What a lousy process.