The spin before tonight's debate seems to be focused on one thing, and one thing only: Will Sarah Palin exceed the generally-held expectations about her performance. We all know those expectations to be very low. The common narrative seems to be that if she exceeds those very low expectations, she wins the debate. To me, that sounds absurd.
Imagine a jubilant team that lost by 35-0, but consider themselves winners, because the spread on the game was 42. Yes, they beat expectations, but that does not make them winners. It does not give any support to a notion that they are a good team after all, only that they are slightly less terrible than what oddsmakers expected.
And why does it matter what the oddsmakers expect, anyway?
You'll never see this news story:
America Jubilant: President Palin's negotiating incompetence only cost us $50 Billion
In her long anticipated negotiations with Sergei Ivanov, President Palin did not get outplayed and bamboozled nearly to the extent that commentators expected. The deal she negotiated only requires us to transfer $50 Billion of the profits from Alaskan oil to Russia. Political scientists feared that the Ivanov, a far more experienced debater, would dupe Palin into surrendering a far larger sum, and possibly some Alaskan territory. These fears were put to rest yesterday, to the relief of most observers.
"Sarah Palin didn't lose as badly as we expected. We thought Ivanov would just wipe the floor with her!" Said a jubilant member of her cabinet. "He only got away with 50B! Awesome! Palin rocks!"
Thanks to her exceeding expectations, experts are now reconsidering their predictions about the outcome of the occupation in Turkmenistan. "This gives us new hope that we can get out of there before reaching 10,000 dead."