Whether or not we win this one, and I think we have a very good chance, we will still have an opposition going forward. It is well documented that the GOP is in disarray. And it is. So what will the GOP New Model Army be going forward? Who is their bench? What will the shape of the party look like if this one crashes and burns? What rough beast slouches towards the Heritage Foundation waiting to be born?
I have no idea what the future GOP will be, only that there will be something to stand in our way and it will be linked to the same sorry conservatives we've been battling for years, but I really am flumoxed about where they will stand in the coming years. I'd love my fellow Kossacks opinions on a couple points.
- The Party
It's often written about the three legged stool of Fundies, NeoCons and Supply Siders that fuelled the post 1980 GOP. And how no candidate emerged in the 2008 primary to united the three factions, thus tossing the nomination to the default choice of McCain.
It's also a fact that the moderates are retiring and deserting the party. There is no place for the "Rockefeller Republican" anymore.
It's also a fact that while a new moderate style GOPer like Arnold Schwartzenaeggar can win even in a blue state (and increasingly the kind of demographic environment the country is heading in) it is clear that the party as a whole is not seeming to be desiring to follow his lead.
So where do they go from here? Will there be a David Cameron style "New Republicanism" that ditches the Dixiecrats, remembers that Rove won Bush's elections by increasing minority support for the GOP, or is that simply too hard a pill for the Southern White Conservatives to swallow? Will they really be so dumb as to go the "full George Wallace" and doom themselves to further irrelevance? Their convention seemed to point in that direction.
Which leg of the stool will form the GOP of the future? I'm curious to hear my fellow Kossacks opinions.
- The Candidates. A Party is ultimately just a collection of people running for stuff and people who support their efforts. Who do they have? Who's the rising stars?
I think their bench is surprisingly weak. You can look at our roster and pick out TONS of future All Stars (Tester, Schweitzer, Webb, Warner, Bayh, Jackson Jr., Richardson, Hillary, etc.) Theirs looks pretty crappy.
The speakers at their convention. Ugh. Rudy? No way. Mittster? Have getting the fundies to swallow the heresies of Joseph Smith. Palin? I think she may be toast after Troopergate.
Their new talent. Crist? MAYBE. Jindal. Nope. Right wing Catholic stuff is too weird.
I see precisely one good politician in the bunch: Huckabee. He'll have to win something else to beef his resume , but he's got the goods. But will they really coalesce around an economic populist?
Who am I overlooking? If they need a David Cameron, do they have one? And if they do, what does this say about question 1?
I am always impressed by the analysis on this board and I await your insights.