This issue has gotten very little press. Before today, there was just a single story on Minnesota Public Radio a few weeks back. But the resurgence of DFL (Democrat-Farmer-Labor) in the Minnesota legislature has been nothing short of extraordinary.
Republicans took control of the house in 1998, and by the 2002 election they had an 81-53 majority. In 2004, which was not a great year for DFLers (although Kerry won Minnesota handily) the Democrats outperformed expectations, pulling to within one voteof a split; the Republicans led 68-66.
2006 was another banner year: the DFL swept everything but the governor's mansion (due to a poor candidate) and in the House they not only took the lead, they vaulted ahead, taking an 85-49 lead; in two cycles reversing the Republican's dominance.
But in 2008, it might get very interesting...
Here's the deal. We have a nincompoop for a governor: Tim Pawlenty. T-Paw is against all taxes ever, so instead we are saddled with sagging infrastructure and property tax increases and fees to cover the middle. Then last year, when the legislature passed a tax to build infrastructure, Governor NoNewTaxes vetoed it, and was overridden. It was a watershed — the first time T-Paw had been rebuffed. With their newfound majority, they needed only six Republican votes to do so.
Where it stands in the legislature today is that the DFL already have a veto-proof Senate: 45-22 (it's up for election in 2010). In the house, they would need five seats to reach 90—a 90-44 majority—to get the veto-proof status they need. Says Larry Jacobs of the U of M:
"There is a good chance, if things continue as they appear to be, that the Democrats will hold their 85 and could well expand it," he said. "Reaching the the 90 vote override majority is certainly within the realm of possibility."
It's "within the realm." According to the MPR story, the DFL is downplaying the possibility of a veto-proof legislature, but the Republicans are scared:
Seifert sent out a fundraising letter warning that his caucus would become an empty carcass if the DFL picked up 5 seats. He even invoked the name of the Senate DFL leader to make his point.
"If we don't have the resources to run these campaigns, Larry Pogemiller is going to be the governor of Minnesota, not Tim Pawlenty…"
And today comes news that Tim Pawlenty, the snubbed Veep pick, is running scared. Instead of flying around as McCain's surrogate, he's off to the electoral meccas of Thief River Falls, Bemidji and North Branch, just trying to hold on to a semblance of power.
A study released this week by two political analysts at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs called the DFL's bid for a veto-proof majority the "biggest sleeper story" of the election season in the state. Such an outcome could make the governor—who arguably remains the most popular Republican in Minnesota—politically "irrelevant," the study said.
With two years to go in his term and everyone vying to run against him in 2010, Pawlenty could be a lame duck in two weeks.
And the changing dynamics of the races in the states sure can't help. Obama is winning big. Al Franken is holding his own. And Michelle Bachmann might well have negative coattails; her primary opponent has launched a write-in campaign after her anti-America remarks. And for the first time, the Dems have a good shot, if they win Bachmann's district and Ashwin Madia wins Ramstad's, the DFL could send seven members to congress for the first time ever.
So if you know people in Minnesota, especially outside of Minneapolis and Saint Paul proper (where all 16 seats are safe DFL), urge them to not only vote for Barack and Al and the appropriate congressperson, but also to make sure they encourage everyone to vote DFL in the house race. The Minnesota DFL hit a nadir in 2002 (the Wellstone year) but it has come roaring back and is poised to win big!