I was looking over today's Rasmussen tracking poll. I am thrilled at the top-line numbers of course (Obama is at his peak--an 8 point lead) but I think there is something even more important than that in the numbers.
Obama is closing the deal:
However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.
Thirty days ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain.
This is STUNNING. In the last month, the proportion of people who commit to voting for Obama has risen by 7 points. While with Mccain it's only risen 1 point. Essentially Mccain is retaining that hard 40% that represents his base, while Obama is attracting all the persuadables.
Link to poll itself.
More importantly, since he's at 48% "committed" support, he only needs to close the deal with another 2%. This dynamic is more significant than the actual numbers...he's basically in a far stronger position now than he has ever been.
And since the election is in a week....this is a great time to be peaking!
Update: Other polls are confirming this trend that Obama's supporting is becoming more solid. Via dcprof, in the comments
The Newsweek poll shows the percentage of those supporting Obama who describe their support as "strong" has gone from 61 to 67 to 74 to 79 in their last polls (July, Sept 10/11, October 8/9, current). In contrast, among McCain supporters, this went from 39 to (immediately post Palin) 71 to 67 to 66.
Not only have people been committing to Obama, but they've been disentangling themselves from McCain over the last several weeks.
and
Here are some stats from Newsweek, Washington Post In contrast to Newsweek, the Washington Post data suggest that those committed to both candidates are getting more committed.
% who say that they will definitely vote for their candidate:
9/7 9/29 10/23
Obama 78 83 91
McCain 80 81 90
Of course, those percentages are of a growing set of people for Obama, and a shrinking percentage for McCain:
% who say they will vote for a candidate
9/7 9/29 10/23
Obama 47 50 53
McCain 49 46 44
So...Obama's been gaining more supporters, and those supporters have been becoming more committed. McCain has been losing supporters, but those supporting have become more committed, per the WP.
I think I would rather be in Obama's position, of course, where my pool of supporters is getting bigger and more committed rather than smaller...and more unhinged.
Update:
Rec list? Thank you!