This week has been interesting because I've spent less time telling people why they should vote for Obama vs. McCain, than simply explaining to people just what Barack Obama will do as President. It doesn't take a Political Science Degree to understand that an 8% lead, averaged across a dozen polls, 11 days from the election equals near certainty in the outcome. People understand that I think; the danger is this is the moment where a second guessing begins. People are resigned to the fact Barack Obama will win this election, by and large. What they want to know now is What Will He Do.... and their short attention spans often get the better of them (this was all explained in the debates).
Enter "Defining Moment"
In this ad, I think Barack Obama accomlishes, on substance and policy, a closing arguement. His temperment is clearly shown through, a clear direct to eye gaze with the viewer. His eyes hardly blinking, this is a man ready and determined, not concerned or erratic. He directly addresses the economy, health care, education, energy and he explains in detail many may not have seen before exactly how he'll pay for it.
This is an ad that Independents yearn for. I believe Barack Obama has an opportunity to expand his lead further, and I think this ad is an indication that the campaign is working towards that end. To close on such a strong, clear note is clearly indicative that they are executing a plan to drive up the vote.
Last night I engaged in a bit of math in trying to figure out what number it would take to give Obama the largest margin of victory in history... that number is 17,838,726, one more than Nixon registered in 1972. That's a huge margin, but in reach I believe due to turn out and current margin of victory. In the last week, a true landslide can occur. Nixon won that race by 23% and ran away with it; LBJ won by 22%, FDR in 1932 by 18%.
Given the current lead, accounting for a 17% increase in turn out from 2004 = 150,000,000 voters, Obama would need 12.25% of the vote to hit 18,000,000 in direct headcount margin, giving him the "largest victory in the history of American politics" and creating a mandate that would last 4 strong years. Newsweek is already pegging the race at this number, as are several other polls... the question is will Obama hold this lead and can he grow this lead.
Defining Moment is precisely the tone and content that will accomplish this feet... watch it again, and you'll see why. This isn't a man running for President, this is a man Born to Be President. And people get that... the wisdom of our democracy is once again strong, now let's close this one out strong!