Fellow Kossacks, I need your help! I am very concerned with the growing number pundits, campaign officials etc. referencing the Bradley effect as if it is some kind of established fact to be expected. The frequency of such references has increased dramatically as the election looms near. When searching for an explanation, remember that the first step towards solving a mystery is to ask: Who benefits?
Who benefits from the expectation that the vote won't reflect current polling? The answer is simple: creating an expectation of this type would serve well any group of people who can exercise undue influence over the voting process. In other words, if someone is preparing to rig the vote, and/or systematically disenfranchise newly registered voters, raising the so-called Bradley effect up-front would serve as a smoke-screen designed to escape scrutiny.
For example, polls currently show Barack Obama with a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. What if on Nov.4, he ends up a few points behind McCain. There are at least two possible explanations of such an outcome.
Theory 1: Someone rigged the voting machines.
Theory 2: the Bradley effect.
Which of these theories will be embraced by the media? Well it depends on which one have they come to believe is a priori more likely. Currently, there is little discussion of the potential pitfalls of electronic voting - the number of segments I have heard about this can be counted on one hand. However, the so-called Bradley effect is mentioned pretty much every time a poll number is reported. Consequently, any disparity between voting and poll numbers will be attributed to this fictional narrative, rather than the very real possibility of election fraud.
So let me end this post with a call to action. I urge everybody to please read Nate Silver's excellent analysis of the Bradley effect fallacy, as well as the Princeton study on electronic voting, and write a letter/email to your favorite media outlet warning that the Bradley effect may act as a potential smokescreen to vote rigging. The goal is to get media outlets to start bringing up the possibility of election fraud as an alternative explanation of a McCain upset in Pennsylvania and other states.