Here is the lowdown on the new rasmussen poll
Here are the internals on the new Rasmussen poll, it looks like maybe they rounded down on Obama, this is not as bad as it seems
CERTAIN O 46 M 43
LIKELY 4 2
LEAN 1 2
LOOKS LIKE OBAMA IS CLOSE TO 51 TO ME
OBAMA GOP 11 DEM 85 OTHER 50
MC 87 13 45
MEN WOMAN WHITE WOMAN
O 46 54 48
M 50 43 50
The difference from yesterday is very small. Obama lost a little bit with both men and woman. His very favorable is still 11% better than McCain. My guess is this is McCain high water mark and in a couple of days Obama will be back to 52%.
Rasmussen pushes people to make a choice he only has 3% undecided and even if McCain got all of these he would just get to a statistical tie.
Zogby has Obama with a bigger lead and he is supposodly using older data. Seems like the difference for Obama is he is only polling 85% with democrats where he was at 88% yesterday. I believe this is just noise until we see another few days of data.
Also at 5 he will have polls on MI,MN, NM, AND ALASKA.