Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/27-29. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/15-16 results)
McConnell (R) 47 (46)
Lunsford (D) 44 (42)
Already voted (16% of sample)
McConnell (R) 44
Lunsford (D) 56
Amazing how we're leading everywhere in early voting, huh? Well, not in the presidential, where McCain leads in the early voting 52-44, and 56-39 overall. But in the races that matter, early voting seems to be going nicely our way.
So where are the undecideds? Eight percent of whites are undecided, and those guys are breaking 53-39 thus far. 13 percent of African Americans as well, which is par for the course in these southern-state polls, where a significant portion of black respondents refuse to tell pollsters their voting intentions. Given that blacks break for Lunsford 82-5 thus far, chances are that 13 percent will likely fall on Lunsford's side. That should be worth another point or so for Lunsford in the toplines.
The big other question mark is Independents, which currently fall 46-41 for McConnell, but with a large 13 percent still undecided. The fate of this election rests on their hands.
On the web:
Bruce Lunsford for Senate
KENTUCKY POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Kentucky Poll was conducted from October 27 through October 29, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 285 (48%)
Women 315 (52%)
Democrats 277 (46%)
Republicans 228 (38%)
Other 95 (16%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 191 (32%)
45-59 190 (32%)
60+ 117 (19%)
White 524 (88%)
Black 56 (9%)
Other 20 (3%)
Voted 96 (16%)
Not Voted 504 (84%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitch McConnell? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 31% 26% 23% 6%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 45% 49% 6%
MEN 49% 46% 5%
WOMEN 41% 52% 7%
DEMOCRATS 24% 73% 3%
REPUBLICANS 73% 20% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 50% 9%
18-29 38% 56% 6%
30-44 50% 43% 7%
45-59 41% 54% 5%
60+ 52% 43% 5%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bruce Lunsford? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 33% 31% 12% 8%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 49% 43% 8%
MEN 46% 47% 7%
WOMEN 52% 39% 9%
DEMOCRATS 69% 22% 9%
REPUBLICANS 26% 69% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 42% 11%
18-29 59% 36% 5%
30-44 45% 46% 9%
45-59 48% 41% 11%
60+ 44% 49% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Bruce Lunsford the Democrat or Mitch McConnell the Republican?
MCCONNELL LUNSFORD UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 44% 9%
VOTED 44% 56% -
NOT VOTED 48% 43% -
MEN 51% 40% 9%
WOMEN 43% 48% 9%
DEMOCRATS 14% 77% 9%
REPUBLICANS 87% 6% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 46% 41% 13%
WHITE 53% 39% 8%
BLACK 5% 82% 13%
OTHER 6% 73% 21%
18-29 42% 51% 7%
30-44 51% 40% 9%
45-59 44% 47% 9%
60+ 52% 38% 10%
DISTRICT 1 48% 43% 9%
DISTRICT 2 53% 40% 7%
DISTRICT 3 38% 57% 5%
DISTRICT 4 50% 38% 12%
DISTRICT 5 49% 42% 9%
DISTRICT 6 44% 43% 13%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 56% 39% 3% 2%
VOTED 52% 44% 4% -
NOT VOTED 57% 38% 3% -
MEN 60% 36% 3% 1%
WOMEN 52% 42% 3% 3%
DEMOCRATS 25% 70% 2% 3%
REPUBLICANS 90% 5% 3% 2%
OTHER 67% 29% 3% 1%
WHITE 63% 32% 3% 2%
BLACK 4% 89% - 7%
OTHER 11% 75% - 14%
18-29 48% 45% 3% 4%
30-44 60% 36% 3% 1%
45-59 54% 42% 3% 1%
60+ 62% 34% 2% 2%
DISTRICT 1 59% 36% 3% 2%
DISTRICT 2 60% 36% 3% 1%
DISTRICT 3 40% 54% 4% 2%
DISTRICT 4 62% 36% 1% 1%
DISTRICT 5 58% 36% 3% 3%
DISTRICT 6 56% 37% 3% 4%