Here's my assessment of how each of the 50 states performed in Tuesday's elections, taking into account all election results, expectations, trends, importance of individual upticket and downticket races, and previous red v. blue status.
I count 13 Wins, and 12 EPIC wins, meaning half the states did just GREAT. There were also seven failures and six EPIC failures, with the other eleven breaking even. Not bad for a cycle.
Which states ran away with the gold, and which got the huge, huge demerits? Below the cut lieth the answers.
ALABAMA: WIN. The bar is pretty low in the deep south, and Alabama has a valid claim to the reddest of the deep south states. We didn’t expect much here. The election of Bobby Bright to a US House seat in a district that hasn’t had a Democrat since the Carter years is a sign that Democrats aren’t completely dead here. In Alabama, that counts as a win.
Next up: Electing a Dem Governor in 2010 and controlling the redistricting. We could end up with a 3-3 or even 4-2 delegation if Alabama loses a seat.
ALASKA: EPIC FAILURE: In fact, the biggest epic failure of the 50 states in 2008. Alaska had a chance to have a Democratic sea change, and accomplished NONE of it. Not the State House, not the State Senate (achieving a one seat net gain and tying the chamber was the best result of the night for them), not even getting rid of the odious Don Young. And barring a last minute surprise, they even chose to re-elect a convicted felon subject to expulsion from the Senate rather than consider a good Democrat. In fact, a good deal of Begich’s support seems to have come from absentee ballots, meaning that people become more likely to vote Democrat when they leave the state temporarily and achieve a little sanity.
I’ve had it. If Alaska would not elect a Democrat under these conditions, they never will. Shall we consider a 49-state strategy and write off Alaska completely, starting with an obliging cutoff of all federal aid and grants to a state that allegedly prides itself on independence, saying "thanks but no thanks" and expresses nothing but contempt for the lower 48 when they’re not sucking on federal money like a teat? How about Obama gathers all Congressional Democrats together to see if anyone from the majority party is from Alaska and will speak up for it. Hearing no opposition...
ARIZONA: WIN. We got a House seat pickup easily (making a 5D, 3R majority) and made gains in the state legislature, in spite of a favorite son on the national ticket. Arizona is definitely part of a bluing southwestern bloc (along with NM, CO and NV) and will be on the map for Obama in 2012 with McCain not on the ticket. Meanwhile prepare for Napolitano’s Senate bid in 2010.
ARKANSAS: NO NET CHANGE. Not much happened here at all. However, the state remains solidly Democratic in everything except the National election. Unless a big race evolves for AR-03, the next order of business is simply to stay that way for 2010.
CALIFORNIA: FAIL. Yes, Arizona and Florida enacted anti gay laws too, but we expected better from California. Measure 8 was the single biggest wet blanket thrown on an overall good election this cycle, and it was the primary task of the golden state this year, since Obama never looked back and no one else was on the ballot this year statewide. Charlie Brown’s heartbreaker in CA-04 didn’t help either. Focus now turns to the 2010 Governor race and to efforts to overturn prop 8.
COLORADO: EPIC WIN. The wins for Obama, Udall and Markey cement Colorado’s transformation in less than ten years from a solid red state to a solid blue state. In that time period, we’ve seen Democrats capture the Governorship, both houses of the state legislature, both US Senators, a 5-2 House delegation that used to be 2-5, and vote Democrat for President for the second time since 1964. Very well done indeed! Protecting our gains in 2010 is the next task.
CONNECTICUT: WIN. The Shays-Himes race was the big one and we won it. There are now no Republicans at all in the House of Representatives for any New England State. Let’s see if we can win the Governor’s office in 2010.
DELAWARE: EPIC WIN. Not only is Biden Vice President, but both houses of the state legislature are Democratic for the first time, I believe, since I was born. Yet another chance to demonstrate what Democrats can do with a majority, maybe inspire Pennsylvania to follow suit. Rep. Mike Castle is now the only stain on this solid blue state, and he won’t be around much longer either.
FLORIDA: WIN. Sort of. The candidate with the most votes was actually allowed to claim the EVs this time, right after McCain’s concession speech. It’s as if Governor Crist saw McCain on TV, went into the room full of Diebold hackers and said, "Don’t even bother, guys. It’s over". Plus we had a net gain of one House seat after picking up two and losing the single seat that would cause the fewest tears to be shed. That has to be considered a win. On the other hand, none of the South Florida Trio made it, meaning we still don’t have a real advantage in this all-important swing state, and other than Senator Nelson, we do not have a big Democratic presence in the state overall.
We have to make Florida one of the top five priorities for 2010. If we do not either defeat Governor Crist or take at least one chamber of the state legislature—any of which is a very, very uphill fight—the Republicans will easily and enthusiastically undo ALL of our hard-earned gains from the past decade by redrawing districts to put our incumbents (such as Kosmas and Grayson) into districts with each other.
GEORGIA: FAILURE. Despite high hopes and motivated AA turnout, we didn’t win anything here. Of the dozen most populous states in the Union, this one remains the most Republican. Is it worthwhile putting more effort here, or should we give up and move the military bases and pork to states that appreciate us?
HAWAII: WIN. Hawaii doesn’t have much room for improvement, but it performed well in 2008, returning all Democrats. It’s well set up for 2010, with an important Governor contest and possibly an open senate seat.
IDAHO: WIN. We picked up the 1st Congressional District from the very worst of the Republicans. Getting anything at all in this state is a deep achievement, and simply holding on to it in two years will be a noble effort.
ILLINOIS: WIN. Solid Democratic majorities all around in Obama’s home state, although IL-10 and 18 were disappointments. Next stop, replacing the Governor with a BETTER Democrat.
INDIANA: WIN. Blue for President for the first time since 1964 has to be a win, but the real prize—the Governorship—slipped through our fingers. Now we’ll have to fight to keep the State House and make gains in the State Senate, just to have a seat at the table for the next round of redistricting. That 3rd district could be added to our column if we get to tweak it a little...
IOWA: NO NET CHANGE. Need to keep working on those two western CDs. Also, a Senate race in 2010, which will probably be a genuine race only if Grassly retires.
KANSAS: EPIC FAILURE. Not only were there no gains in the Senate and KS-04 races, but we lost Nancy Boyda. Put her in the Obama Administration somewhere and get Sibelius to run for the other Senate seat in two years.
KENTUCKY: FAILURE. We didn’t lose The Penguin, and we didn’t take the 1st or 2nd House districts. Next up: an easier shot at the Junior Senator in 2010.
LOUISIANA: FAILURE. We lost Cazayoux, and the 4th district doesn’t look promising. May reconsider if we actually win the 4th. Saving grace is that William Jefferson will be replaced with a better Democrat. Bad news is, even that Better Democrat needs to be replaced next time; she’s much too much of a DINO for that district. But at least she won’t be #435 in effectiveness, behind even all the Republicans.
MARYLAND: EPIC WIN. In a state with solid blue majorities everywhere and so little room for improvement, picking up a House seat and a 7-1 majority is an epic win. If Kratovil can keep the seat in 2010, redistricting will not only protect him but possibly enable an 8-0 Democratic delegation.
MAINE: EPIC FAILURE. The one task Maine had to do was to get rid of the sitting Republican Senator, and it couldn’t do it, even as the rest of New England cruised to victory. Maybe Obama should put Snowe in his cabinet, ‘cause that might be the only way to flip the seat before one of those so-called "moderates" dies. Next up; Keeping the Governorship.
MASSACHUSETTS: WIN. The bluest state of them all already has everything. Keeping it (and adding to the legislative majority a little) is a win.
MICHIGAN: WIN. A two-seat pickup for the House makes the delegation majority Democrat, and we added to our State House majority, too. 2010 will be BIG for this state, as the outcome will determine who gets to redistrict. We could win—or lose—the entire trifecta.
MINNESOTA: EPIC FAILURE. Barring a recount surprise, we failed to lose Coleman, we failed to lose Bachmann, heck, we even failed to pick up an easy open seat in Hennepin County. In what’s supposed to be a solid blue state! That SUCKS. Next chance for redemption: the House seats and the Governor’s mansion two years from now.
MISSISSIPPI: NO NET CHANGE. The bar is lower in the deep South. The Senate race was lost, but the fact that it was there at all said more about the Magnolia State’s potential to change. And we still have legislative majorities and 3 out of 4 House seats, including Childers. Not much coming up for next time, except maybe a spirited challenge to the 3rd district.
MISSOURI: NO NET CHANGE. The failure to maintain status as the biggest bellweather state by voting for Obama, or to pick up either of the two contested Congressional seats is tempered by having the only Governorship to change hands. We needed that one to prevent the GOP from controlling redistricting in a year when Missouri is likely to lose a seat. Next up: Ditching Christopher Bond in 2010.
MONTANA: NO NET CHANGE. The Big One, and most important was the Secretary of State, which we won, along with a majority on the Lands Board, Attorney General...in fact, all statewide offices except Congressman At Large, which was not on the map. On the other hand, we narrowly lost both houses of the legislature, hampering Schweitzer’s efforts to control the State.
NEBRASKA: WIN. Obama gets an EV from this blood red state? I’ll take it! All other races stayed GOP, but they were that way to begin with. In these prairie states, we keep making progress at the tortoise’s rate. There’s a chance at the Governor, the House districts and some of the "nonpartisan" legislature coming up.
NEVADA: EPIC WIN . Obama, Titus (NV-03, which gives Dems a majority of the Congressional delegation) and the State Senate. What could be better? OK, Jill Derby in the other House district would have been nice, but still, the results we got made a purple state blue and set things up for a good Governor’s race in 2010 that could give us total control of redistricting a state that will gain a seat next time around.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: EPIC WIN. We got everything we needed, and kept what we had. Carol shea-Porter ought to have an easier time of it next time around, while Judd Gregg is now the only major Republican left, and will have one of the biggest bullseyes on his head next election.
NEW MEXICO EPIC WIN. WE DID IT! A five-for-five Congressional delegation and a state so solidly blue that Bill Richardson may take a cabinet post without any danger to the state’s chances of redrawing the districts in 2011 and making Harry Teague safer. Watch for Pearce to try to take the seat back in 2010, though—that’ll be a bigger race than the Governorship, especially if the Governor still has an incumbent Dem picked by Richardson at the end of this year.
NEW JERSEY: WIN. OK, we got the 3rd district, but Shulman would have been nice in the 5th, too. And Stender in the 7th. New Jersey being a blue northeastern state, one pickup isn’t as impressive as one pickup in alabama. But it’s a win. And NJ still has a solid Dem Governor, Dem legislature, two Dem Senators, majority House delegation and went for Obama, and we might have lost the 3rd too. So it’s a win.
NEW YORK: EPIC WIN. The three house pickups were nice, but the real EPIC win was getting the State Senate. Those last three House districts, at the far corners of this triangular state are going to be redrawn BLUE (or erased entirely, if we lose seats) if we don’t pick them up in the meantime—leaving NO Republicans in the third largest state!
NORTH CAROLINA: EPIC WIN. Maybe in contention with Virginia for biggest win of the night. The home state of Jesse Helms not only votes for Obama, but elects a powerful female Dem Governor (holding the seat), a powerful female Dem Senator (a flip), and a powerful progressive Dem to a +R rural House seat, making the delegation 8-5 Democrat. The legislature is solid Dem enough that it is very likely we’ll run the table on redistricting North Carolina, adding a new blue seat and maybe tweaking the 9th and 3rd to favor us. Next up: the "turnstile" Senate seat, which is now Republican and which has changed hands every election since 1974.
NORTH DAKOTA: NO NET CHANGE. We made gains in the proportional vote for President and gained a little in the legislature without flipping control. At this point, building infrastructure is all we’re doing. Bit by bit, we can make ND blue.
OHIO: EPIC WIN. First, it was this state that, when it was called, made me certain that Obama would be President, since McCain could not win without it. Second, we took one chamber of the state legislature and are poised to take the other and control redistricting, giving Ohio the Congressional and legislative boundaries it deserves. Third, in a gerrymandered House map that was designed to elect a 6-12 GOP delegation, we now have either a 10-8 or an 11-7 Demo majority, depending on whether Kilroy makes it or not. This has been one of the most super-awesome results of the night. Sure, the 14th (now sticking out awkwardly, very far from all the other GOP districts) eluded us yet again, and Schmidt is still there. But second prize is, Schmidt is still there as an embarrassment to Republicans, and her seat will stay competitive as long as she is there. In 2010, we have a Senate seat to win and a State Government trifecta to pursue.
OKLAHOMA: EPIC FAILURE. One of the very few states (TN being the other) that became WORSE this election, losing the state legislature. Also, the only state that did not have EVEN ONE COUNTY support Obama. The third state on the list that causes me to consider abandonment of the 50-state strategy and concentration on 45 or so that have at least some chance of responding to our work.
OREGON: EPIC WIN. The election of Jeff Merkley to the US Senate and the expansion of our legislative majority causes my home state to take its place among the ten bluest states in the nation—those states that have Democrats in all statewide offices, voted Dem for President, and have solid legislative and Congressional majorities. (the other nine that can make that claim are CO, MD, MA, NY, NM, NJ, IL, WA and WI, several of which, like Oregon, joined the club as a result of this year’s election). Next cycle will be focused on getting a better Dem Governor, and on local races.
PENNSYLVANIA: WIN. It was mostly about US House races this year, with an unusual number of defense seats. We had to fight for our four gains from last cycle, plus the 11th as well (and I still do not understand why that seat was ever competitive, what would make a nothing skunk like Barletta suddenly popular in that district at this time, or what would make Kanjorski vulnerable). But we kept that seat, and the 10th, the 4th, and even won the 3rd. Good job!
PA will be super important in 2010. Not only will there be a top US Senate pickup opportunity, but we’ll need to make a full court press for the state legislature (PA is now the only state out of 12 in the northeast that has a state legislature not completely controlled by Democrats), and the open Governor. We could win, or lose, all three, which will decide whether we keep our hard earned Congressional districts or whether they’re redrawn to make our incumbents fight each other.
RHODE ISLAND: WIN. RI has everything except the Governor’s mansion, which isn’t up until 2010. And kept it.
SOUTH CAROLINA: FAILURE. Could have had Linda Ketner in Congress, but failed. Keep an eye on her; she’s the one to lead the SC Democratic party to victory, if you give her what she needs to win.
SOUTH DAKOTA: NO NET CHANGE. Nothing expected here, and nothing happened. Coming up: A chance to take out Senator Thune next cycle.
TENNESSEE: EPIC FAILURE. Lost the state legislature and performed worse for President than in 2004 while other states were making gains across the board. Senate pickup opportunity went nowhere, and the only open House seat stayed GOP without ever getting on the map. Come on, Tennessee! You can do better than that!
TEXAS: FAILURE. Lost Lampson’s House seat and re-elected Big Bad John in a majority nonwhite state. Texas’s last big chance for a long time to come will be the race for the lower House of the legislature in 2010. If Democrats win that body, redistricting will have some fairness. If not, it may be all over for yet another decade.
UTAH: NO NET CHANGE. I’m being generous, since nothing was expected in the reddest of all red states. It didn’t get much worse, although it’s debatable whether the new Congressman who replaced Chris Cannon, and who wants to round up Mexicans and put them in tent cities, is even worse than Cannon the Barbarian. And nothing but more of the same is expected. Abandon the state? Given that Mormons were responsible for Prop 8 in California, it’s hard to see how reaching out to them would be either desirable or effective.
VERMONT: NO NET CHANGE. Solid blue state, but still not a win in a year when a GOP Governor got re-elected with token opposition.
VIRGINIA: EPIC WIN. The new Senator was expected. The history-making Presidential win was considered a possibility, even a lean as we got to the homestretch. But winning the 11th, 2nd AND 5th Districts for a majority Dem House delegation was not predicted by anybody that I noticed. Well done, Virginia, and welcome Old Dominion to the New America. Next up—just around the corner, a chance to keep the Governor’s office and take the other chamber of the legislature, which really would make Virginia solid blue all over!
WASHINGTON: NO NET CHANGE. I was more confident Gregoire would win than some people were, and she did, decisively. This state is not a win, however, because the Big One was our own Darcy Burner in the 8th district, and she didn’t make it. I have a hard time deciding whether Burner or Prop 8 was the bigger heartbreak on an otherwise decent night. Maybe she’ll go to the cabinet. In 2010, another chance to take the district (getting harder each time, though), and otherwise easy breathing for the state.
WEST VIRGINIA: NO NET CHANGE. It almost counts as a failure that WV elected neither Obama nor my schoolboy crush Anne Barth (WV-02). On the other hand, we got Secretary of State and so those two losses were the ONLY GOP victories in what would otherwise be an absolute 100% blue state. Rep. Capito is the only major Republican holding office there, and we’ll get another chance or two to take her down before one of the US Senate seats opens up and we have a mighty interesting race.
WISCONSIN: EPIC WIN. Capturing the state legislature brings Wisconsin to Perfect Blue status: legislature, Governor, both Senators, majority House delegation, Obama state. If we keep it in 2010, we can redistrict back to two Milwaukee centered House districts and a 6-2 Dem delegation instead of 5-3.
WYOMING: FAILURE: Gary Trauner’s House race was the only thing on the map, and it failed. Neither Senate race even made a blip. Uphill race to keep the Governor’s mansion coming up, assuming Freudenthal doesn’t or can’t go for a third term. Is there ANYTHING that can be done to get Wyoming on the map, or is it just hopeless?