I thought I'd do a quick state-by-state breakdown of where Obama did best and worst in the election in comparison with Kerry, to see where his areas of strength and weakness appear to be. I compared each state with Kerry's performance in 2004, and then listed them in descending order of Obama's performance. You may be surprised by some! I've noted the region according to the Census Bureau classification after each state: W (West), MW (MidWest), S (South), NE (North East)
\1. HI +36 W
\2. IN +22 MW
\3. ND +20 MW
4.= MT +17 W
4.= NE +17 MW
4.= UT +17 W
7.= DE +16 S
7.= NM +16 W
\9. VT +15 NE
10.= CA +14 W
10.= NV +14 W
10.= SD +14 MW
10.= IL +14 MW
14.= VA +13 S
14.= MI +13 MW
16.= GA +12 S
16.= CO +12 W
16.= WI +12 MW
16.= ID +12 W
20.= TX +11 S
20.= CT +11 NE
22.= MD +10 S
22.= IA +10 MW
24.= ME +9 NE
24.= NH +9 NE
24.= WA +9 W
24.= KS +9 MW
NATIONAL AVERAGE +8.3
28.= NC +8 S
28.= SC +8 S
28.= FL +8 S
28.= NJ +8 NE
28.= PA +8 NE
28.= WY +8 W
34.= RI +7 NE
34.= NY +7 NE
34.= OR +7 W
34.= MO +7 MW
34.= MN +7 MW
39.= MS +6 S
39.= DC +6 S
39.= OH +6 MW
42.= AL +4 S
42.= KY +4 S
\44. AZ +2 W
\45. MA +1 NE
46.= OK 0 S
46.= WV 0 S
48.= AK -1 W
48.= TN -1 S
\50. LA -4 S
\51. AR -11 S
It's fairly dramatically clear from this breakdown that the South stands out negatively: generally, Obama made significant gains in relation to Kerry in all parts of the country, but in the south in many cases he barely improved or even in a couple of instances actually did worse than Kerry. The average swing per region, averaged across states (not accounting for population) is as follows:
West +12.5%
MidWest +12.6%
NorthEast +8.3%
South +6.4%
In fact, there's an even more dramatic picture if you break up the south and separate out the "south Atlantic" states of DC, DE, MD, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL from the rest.
South Atlantic: +10.1%
Other South: +1.0%
So if you want to know where the Republican party remains strong as ever and the Dems as weak as ever, there you have it: Appalachia and the non-Atlantic Deep South. To be specific, that's the states of OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV.
In every other region, even in unlikely places like North Dakota, Utah and Nebraska, Obama made a significant advance, but that one subsection of the country remained impervious to his appeal and totally loyal to the Republicans.
Is this the base from which the Republicans will have to rebuild? The "God and guns" white conservative south? If it is, I think it could be a while before they're a serious national party again...