The Minnesota Secretary of State Minnesota Secretary of State (SoS) has posted raw numbers that show Franken with a 4108 vote lead. This is a misleading number that is actually quite meaningless as far as the recount goes. When the recount started, Coleman was up by 40,000 votes in the early recount returns. So let’s all calm down here and take a look at the state of the numbers.
In a recount of a vote this close, the raw numbers are meaningless until the vote is finished. What matters is who has gained or lost votes as the recount progresses. Because of numerous challenges, both sides have lost votes so far in the recount process. The one useful thing the SoS numbers gives us is the original votes cast (of the recounted ballots) versus the recounted votes from those same ballots.
Franken has gone from 1,105,030 Nov. 4th votes on the recounted ballots to 1,103,291. In other words Franken has lost 2498 votes in the 91.13% of ballots counted.
Coleman has gone from 1,103,291 Nov. 4th votes on the recounted ballots to 1,100,922. In other words Coleman has lost 2369 votes so far.
The bottom line from these results is that Coleman lost 129 fewer votes than Franken. Coleman started 215 votes up. Coleman is now 344 votes up by these numbers.
You may wonder why is Franken up? The votes from the very Republican counties of Wright and Scott will not be counted until tomorrow!
NOW THE MORE POSITIVE NEWS.
- According to the Star Tribune Coleman has issued challenges to 3078 ballots and Franken has issued challenges to 2887 ballots. In a gross oversimplification, many of the challenges are bogus and the votes will mostly be added back. If they were all that way, Franken would pick up 191 votes.
- Now, as I said in the above paragraph that is a gross oversimplification. However, it is believed that Franken’s challenges are of a higher "quality." For example, if there is an undervote because a voter circled Franken’s name instead of filling in the little circle that Franken challenges, that did not take one away from Coleman and would get added to Franken. It is hoped that Franken has more of these and the Coleman’s challenges are more bogus -- such as saying someone that voted for McCain would not vote for Franken. (Yes Coleman has made such challenges). Basicly there are two types of challenges: 1 That vote that counted should not have; and 2 that vote that didn’t count should. Without knowing how that breaks down in the 6000 total challenges, predictions are not reliable.
- What to do with rejected absentee ballots? The MN SoS has asked counties to sort rejected ballots to determine if any are wrongly rejected. If the wrongly rejected ballots are allowed as Franken wants, who does that help?
- Speaking of predictions, FRANKEN’S LAWYER PREDICTS WIN. Apparently 171 Votes in very Democratic St. Paul were not counted because of a scanner malfunction. That fact giving Franken 37 net votes, coupled with the higher quality of Franken challenges leads to the prediction by the Franken camp of a win.
Let’s all hope the lawyers are right for a change!