UPDATE: MSNBC claims the two camps report the following superdelegate totals:
MSNBC: Latest eletion news: SD's
HRC: 263 (+20)
BHO: 175 (+19)
I am going to add these figures to my totals, even though it is quite likely either or both camps are inflating their numbers here.
If these figures are accurate, the good news for the Obama camp is that they are now getting SD's at the same rate as Clinton is, which is a decided shift from how the SD's who have committed so far have been trending (about 61% for HRC before these latest additions).
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{Hat tip to (for updated info): Elrod (Tennessee)}
Ok, here is the absolute LATEST information on the total delegate counts.
We'll start with the raw numbers. All of the following figures are legitimate and gleamed from the respected sources listed at the end of the diary. The numbers are either actual delegate totals from the individual states or well-guessed estimates made by the sites that I referred to in making this piece. The only 'predicting' I personally did of any figures below regards how I feel the remaining 57 delegates from Super Tuesday and this past weekend will be allocated ('Analysis/Conclusions' points #2 & #4); all other numbers are from the cited sources.
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Total results Update (by dates) {2.10.08}:
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Pre-Super Tuesday:
IA F 15 HRC; 16 BHO [JRE 14 ]
NH F 9 HRC; 9 BHO [JRE 4 ]
(MI) F 73 HRC; '55' BHO [JRE '0'] {'55' = 'Uncommitted' delegates}
NV F 12 HRC; 13 BHO [JRE 0]
SC F 12 HRC; 25 BHO [JRE 8]
(FL) F 105 HRC; 67 BHO [JRE 13]
48 HRC; 63 BHO [JRE 26 ] {w/o FLA, MI}
226 HRC; 185 BHO [JRE 39] {w/ FLA, MI}
(178) (122)
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Super Tuesday (with 'still-to-be-counted' delegate #s):
Dems Abroad -- 7 ( ) []
Am Samoa -- F { 2 HRC; 1 BHO}
AK ----------- F { 4 HRC, 9 BHO}
AL ----------- 1 {c = 24 HRC, 27 BHO} []
AZ ----------- F { 31 HRC, 25 BHO}
AR ----------- F { 27 HRC, 8 BHO}
CA ----------- F { 207 HRC, 163 BHO}
CO ----------- 27 {c = 9 HRC, 19 BHO}#[18-37?]
CT ----------- F { 22 HRC, 26 BHO}
DE ----------- F { 6 HRC, 9 BHO}
GA ----------- F { 26 HRC, 61 BHO}
ID ----------- F { 3 HRC, 15 BHO}
IL ----------- F { 49 HRC, 104 BHO}
KS ----------- F { 9 HRC, 23 BHO}
MA ----------- F { 55 HRC, 38 BHO}
MN ----------- F { 24 HRC, 48 BHO}
MO ----------- F { 36 HRC, 36 BHO}
NJ ----------- F { 59 HRC, 48 BHO}
NM ----------- 1 {c = 13 HRC, 12 BHO} []
NY ----------- F { 139 HRC, 93 BHO}
ND ----------- F { 5 HRC, 8 BHO}
OK ----------- F { 24 HRC, 14 BHO}
TN ----------- F { 40 HRC, 28 BHO}
UT ----------- F { 9 HRC, 14 BHO}
36 823 HRC; 829 BHO {Obama will win ST}
{'36' is the number of delegates, total, still to be allocated from Super Tuesday}
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Rest of February
LA F { 22 HRC; 34 BHO}
NE F { 8 HRC; 16 BHO}
WA 20 {c = 15 HRC; 43 BHO} [25-53?]
VI 1 {c = 0 HRC; 2 BHO} []
ME F { 9 HRC; 15 BHO}
21 54 HRC; 110 BHO
{21 delegates still to be allocated from these contests}
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Super Delegates
{263 HRC; 175 BHO}
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Totals:
(With 57 delegates still to be allocated from the previous contests, many of whom are from Colorado [27] and Washington [20], and thus will disproportionately go to BHO)
[1188 HRC; 1177 BHO] (w/o MI, FLA)
[1366 HRC; 1299 BHO] (w/ MI, FLA)
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Analysis/Conclusions:
- Barack Obama won the most Super Tuesday pledged delegates.
- Barack Obama will be ahead in total delegates (excluding FLA and MI) when the final 57 delegates from the already-conducted contests are calculated. {Update: I have had to modify this diary twice today, and the 'lead' I am calculating for BHO has shrunk twice; it now stands at 4 votes, based on my assumption of the 57 delegate split}. Using my guesstimate of a 36/21 split in favor of BHO for those yet-to-be-counted delegates, the numbers are:
BHO: 1177 + 36 = 1213
HRC: 1188 + 21 = 1209
- Hillay Clinton is ahead when FLA and MI delegates are added, and will still be ahead in this metric when the 57 remaining delegates from the previous contests are allocated.
- Once the 57 remaining delegates from previous contests are added the total will be something around 1387 HRC to 1335 BHO (MI and FLA included). These figures could vary possibly between say 1377 - 1387 for Clinton and 1335 - 1345 for BHO, but there will not be much variance beyond that, I believe. Maybe up to 5 more either way.
- In order to tie HRC then, given the 1387 and 1335 figures, BHO (who would be down by 51 delegates) would need to have about a 110/58 split in delegates in tomorrow's Potomac Primaries [total = 168 delegates]. Alternatively, he could get a smaller split in tomorrow's contests and then get a favorable differential in Wisconsin (74) and Hawaii (20) on Feb 19 in order to be on even ground with Senator Clinton before the March 4 contests (Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont), based on the FLA and MI delegates metric.
- Current pledged delegate total (not including FLA and MI; pending the 57 delegates still to be added from previous contests:
TD SD PD
HRC: 1188 - 263 = 925
BHO: 1177 - 175 = 1002
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References:
RealClearPolitics - Dem delegate count
CBS News -- Dem delegate count
AP - Superdelegate count
CNN - Illinois Primary page
Michigan allocated delegates
Tallahassee.com - Florida delegates figures