The MSM just can't get it right on delegate counts. Depending on the numbers they use, they've got Obama ahead by a few or Hillary ahead by a few more.
But you can't mix and match on the super delegates. Early endorsements mean very little, and many of the supers who have not endorsed are holding back waiting to see how this all plays out. It's really about the voters and who they're choosing.
The facts are pretty simple:
Obama has a pledged delegate lead of about 88 votes. That number is likely to go up to over 120 tomorrow. And the MSM meme about Clinton waiting for Texas and Ohio to get even is ridiculous. More below.
Let me go back and document the 88 vote Obama lead in pledged delegates. This is a bigger number than most media are projecting. Why? They are ignoring delegates that have already been selected in Colorado and Washington, states in which Obama dominated the caucuses, because there is some confusion about the final outcome.
But here are the state totals, and the differences between Obama and Clinton. States with an # are agreed upon by all media. States with a * have an explanatory note below:
State | Total Del | Obama | Clinton | Edwards | Unallocated | >Diff |
Iowa* | 45 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 14 | +1 |
NH# | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Nevada# | 25 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
Michigan | N/A | | | | | |
S Carolina# | 45 | 25 | 12 | 8 | 0 | +13 |
Florida | N/A | | | | | |
California# | 370 | 163 | 207 | 0 | 0 | -44 |
New York# | 232 | 93 | 139 | 0 | 0 | -46 |
Illinois# | 153 | 104 | 49 | 0 | 0 | +54 |
New Jersey# | 107 | 48 | 59 | 0 | 0 | -11 |
Massachusetts# | 93 | 38 | 55 | 0 | 0 | -17 |
Georgia# | 87 | 61 | 26 | 0 | 0 | +35 |
Minnesota# | 72 | 48 | 24 | 0 | 0 | +24 |
Missouri# | 72 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 0 | +0 |
Tennessee# | 68 | 29 | 39 | 0 | 0 | -10 |
Colorado* | 55 | 37 | 18 | 0 | 0 | +19 |
Arizona# | 56 | 25 | 31 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
Alabama# | 52 | 27 | 24 | 0 | 1 | +3 |
Connecticut# | 48 | 26 | 22 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
Arkansas# | 35 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 0 | -19 |
Oklahoma# | 38 | 14 | 24 | 0 | 0 | -10 |
Kansas# | 32 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +14 |
New Mexico# | 26 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
Utah# | 23 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
Delaware# | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
Idaho# | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +12 |
N Dakota# | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
Alaska# | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
Washington* | 78 | 52 | 26 | 0 | 0 | +26 |
Louisiana# | 56 | 34 | 22 | 0 | 0 | +12 |
Nebraska# | 24 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +8 |
Maine# | 24 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +6 |
American Samoa# | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Virgin Is# | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
Explanations:
Iowa - Party rules require Edwards delegates to be reallocated at the state convention.
Colorado - Colorado caucuses went over 2-1 for Obama, yet most news organizations show the state's 55 delegates being split 17-7. The actual split is close to 37-18 according to several sources, a net pickup of 9 delegates for Obama. While the final total may deviate by one or two, you can't not count these - they've already been determined by caucus.
Washington - Same situation here as in Colorado, although allocation of all the 78bcommitted delegates will probably favor Hillary by two delegates over the current allocation of just 58 delegates.
So, bottom line here, Obama is leading by 88 committed delegates, give or take a a couple.
Now, what's going to happen next? Well, we've got pretty good polling information on the Potomac Primaries tomorrow. I understand that we can't take this as a given and everybody's got to work, but Obama should pick up at least 30 committed delegates tomorrow.
That's a 118 committed delegate lead heading into Wisconsin and Hawaii.
Since we don't have much in the way of future polling data to go by, let's use the Obama leaked delegate spreadsheet to estimate the future. This has been a conservative estimate of Obama support so far. These show Obama finishing +1 for all the rest of the states, beginning with February 19, and including Clinton victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.
That leaves Obama with an approximate 130 committed delegate lead at the end of the primary schedule.
Now, things happen that are impossible to explain, so let's say Hillary wins the big states by a bigger margin than expected. Given proportional representation (and remembering that she picked up only 45 delegates in New York, her strongest state, which is much bigger than any of the remaining states in delegate count), her best case is to come in between 75 and 100 pledged delegates behind Obama.
So, her winning scenario at that point is to amass enough super delegates to overtake that pledged delegate count, get the Michigan and Florida delegations seated, and use that as a base to win the nomination.
Is this likely to happen? No, for several reasons.
- Fewer than half the super delegates have endorsed a candidate. This is certainly not for want of opportunity. We can assume that many of the unpledged super delegates are withholding an endorsement, taking the view that it is their job to ratify the will of the majority.
- Eventually the MSM will come around to an understanding of Obama's lead among pledged delegates and stop mixing apples and oranges by combining pledged delegates and super delegates. They will catch on to the fact that it will become a contest between the voters and the party leadership, and party leaders will be hard pressed to fight that fight.
- The current Clinton-Obama split in super delegates reflects the early endorsement of many party leaders from a time when Clinton was the presumed nominee. We can assume that future endorsements will reflect the tilt in the contest toward Obama.
- The consequences to the party of heading this route will be dire. (And don't ding me for wanting to change the rules in the middle of the contest. I don't. But I believe super delegates will understand what they could be doing to the party.) Specifically,
Young people will opt out. The Democrats have a once in a generation opportunity to lock in young voters. They will stay with Obama, hopefully for eight years, and by that point they will be lifetime Dems.
African Americans will opt out in large numbers. Remember how they sat on the sidelines until Iowa, not believing they could even hope for an African American candidate. If there will is denied by the super delegates, it will likely mean a catastrophic loss of the party's most reliable bloc, not only in November but in the future.
In short, the supers will have an opportunity to ratify the will of the voters, or to split the party into fragments. You have to figure even the Democratic party leadership will get this one right.