I was encouraged when I saw the graph and discouraged when I read the detail. According to Gallup a plurality of those interviewed identified themselves as Democrats:
Forty percent of Americans in the Feb. 11-14 Gallup Poll -- in response to the question, "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?" -- said they identified with the Democratic Party, while 26% identified with the Republican Party and 34% with neither (most of these considered themselves independents).
This is unusually high, but seems to make sense considering the political landscape.
However, look at the details. What other points in the past have coincided with high Dem indentification:
The last time 40% of Americans identified as Democrats was August 2000. Before that, there have been just a handful of Gallup Poll telephone surveys -- going back to 1985 -- in which 40% or more of Americans identified as Democrats. The highest Democratic identification in a Gallup telephone poll was 42% in July 1987.
Why do these high Dem identification points all coincide with periods when Republicans were elected President?
My only theory is that progressive policies were winning the "ideas" debate but Democratic personalities (Dukakis and Gore) were perhaps losing the "personality" fight (Gore, I think, has since won over a lot of the people he turned off back in 2000, but if you go back in time and look objectively at the coverage, Gore did have trouble in this area).
It does seem to show that stupid questions like: who would you rather have a beer with or go to a barbaque with matter. If you have 40% Democrat identification, you need to win this group over with your policies and ideas. To get the other 10% or more on your side, you better have a good personality (or one that is at least better than the other person's).
Hardly new, I know, but it's shocking when you see in clear graph form that it's not enough to win over lots of people with good ideas.