(This diary is cross-posted at MyDD)
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We are close to entering the 'endgame' of this primary season. Or perhaps I should say the prelude to the endgame, since the real endgame will likely occur at the National Convention in Denver in August.
The final components of this 'middle' game are 3: Florida, Michigan, and to a lesser extent, Pennsylvania.
I wrote yesterday about my decision to not support Barack Obama in November should he be nominated. I will not support anyone who willingly disenfranchises millions of Democrats, particularly after what happened in 2000 in Florida. That is not acceptable to me, and never would be. And make no mistake: It is Obama's call. Yes, Obama's surrogates are the ones saying things like Obama will only accept a 50/50 delegate split in Michigan, but if Barack wanted it differently, he could say the word and Michigan would be 'healed,' so to speak.
But I only hear silence.
And so my choice is clear. Obama has cast his die, and thus forced me to roll my own.
There are any number of articles I could cite, supporting documents to be found. But I don't have too much time right now, so I'll keep it simple and mostly provide my own analysis.
We, as Democrats, are being led down what I feel is a path to November defeat by two factors:
** A bitter, jealous dislike of all things Clinton
** A 'movement' which is structurally non-sustainable in November,
and which has been falsely constructed at its base due to a series of disingenuous attacks
Clinton hatred: Many of our leaders -- and I use that term lightly -- whom oppose Hillary Clinton are failed presidential aspirants. We know the names: Kerry, Bradley, Kennedy, Dean (well, he hasn't officially declared against HRC; he can't, as head of the DNC), Hart, etc.
All of these individuals have witnessed the Clintons -- in particular Bill Clinton -- succeed where they have not. Some have been more candid in their reasoning for opposing the Clintons (the story is that Ted Kennedy 'snapped' when he heard Hillary laud LBJ for helping get Civil Rights legislation passed, as this was a supposed slight on his brother's administration), others less so. But the subtext is clearly there, if you have the ear for such things.
I listened to Bill Bradley speak today on CNN, and the power of his antipathy towards Hillary Clinton goes beyond mere support for Barack Obama.
What has happened for our Party's anti-Clinton element is a "Reese's" moment, a kind of politically fortuitous meeting akin to peanut butter and chocolate combining forces.
That is, Barack Obama has given them the opportunity to unleash their animosity towards the Clintons, and the Clintons' dominance of a Party which the anti-Clintonites have failed to represent in the White House.
And the anti-Clintons aren't letting go. Disenfranchised electorates, outruled Democratic voters and November prospects be damned. Never underestimate the collective strength of a series of bruised egos.
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Structurally non-sustainable 'movement' in November:
African-American voters will help insure that Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama keeps his slight edge over Hillary Clinton -- for now. They will not help him beat John McCain if he eventually gets the Democratic nomination. Yet it's still a virtual article of political faith that a strong, united, and crusading black vote can tip the scale for a Democratic presidential candidate. This is a myth and it's risky business for Obama and the Democrats to believe that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
There are two versions of what has happened with the African-American vote during this nomination process, and they are not necessarily mutually exclusive. However, one has followed the other.
The first thought is that the Obama camp has consciously sought to turn the African-American vote against the Clintons. I have recounted these efforts on numerous occasions, and won't do so here. Suffice to say, this effort began in earnest with Jesse Jackson, Jr. after New Hampshire and before South Carolina's primary.
The second perspective is that as African-Americans have come to believe that Obama's candidacy is legitimately viable, they have, naturally, increased their support for him.
The latter explanation makes sense. However, it should be pointed out that there weren't any polls showing 91% BHO-HRC voting splits until after the first rationale's effects had had a chance to be more fully digested.
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Where are we headed?
Several things are going to happen after this election:
** Thorough primary reform, including the removal of undemocratic caucuses, open primaries and the like. Closed proportional primaries will be the standard.
** Correlated with this point will be an increased emphasis on the will of the Democratic voter in choosing our primary nominee, as opposed to allowing meddling GOP voters and Indy-leaning GOP voters carry out the orders of people like Rush Limbaugh. Let's take a look at how that Dem popular vote is looking right now:
HRC: 10.3 million votes
BHO: 9.2 million
http://www.delegatehub.com/...
** A very long, very thorough look into our Party's collective soul, and how we got to where we are at after the 2008 general election. Expect this introspection to be followed by shakeups at the top of the leadership chain
We are heading a certain way, following a certain path. It is one which I would refer to as Jacobinist; something along the lines of 'In the name of hope, I now remove my nose from my face.'
So may it be. Some battles are won before wars lost, some stage robbers are not headed off at the pass.
Sometimes prevention is not allowed to be the best cure.
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There are a number of important progressive issues and candidates I will be supporting in my area this fall. Much work to be done. The struggle continues every day, and it has to be met by each of us.
When the time comes, and the sending of the messengers goes out to round up more fighters for the larger war, spare your horse for me.
I will be thinking of my brothers and sisters in Michigan, in Florida. I will remember New Hampshire and its aftermath, will remember the perils of the unfulfilled political egos of my Party's 'generals.'
And I will return to the local battlefronts to resume our cause.