There have been a spate of diaries lately intensely worried that Obama has taken a bit of a dip in several recent polls. While it would be preferable to be comfortably ahead at this point, the angst expressed is misplaced.
We are 7 1/2 months away from the general election. And Clinton would need to sweep the board with extreme blowout wins to stand a chance at the nomination. There is no realistic chance of that happening. Take a look at the Democratic race a comparable 7 1/2 months ago:
Rassmussen Weekly Tracking Poll
The August 6, 2007 poll shows Clinton up over Obama 44-22. You don't have to go back nearly that far - November 19 shows Clinton up 42-23. Then what happened in Iowa? Who won 11 straight contests after Super Tuesday? Who has nearly insurmountable leads in delegates, states won, and the popular vote, not to mention fundraising? This demonstrates that a lot can happen in 7 1/2 months.
You can counter with, "Dear Sir, if you are so smart, haven't you just proven that Obama's lead can evaporate just as quickly as Clinton's?" Well, not really. The math really is inescapable. Short of a Spitzer-like scandal and complete collapse by Obama, Clinton has just run out of time, and has not shown any inclination for running a winning campaign. She stands about as much chance of being the Democratic nominee as Dennis Kucinich.
So, is the general election wrapped up? Well, no - those all-important polls show it about even right now, don't they? But we have seen what a superior candidate we have in Barack Obama, exemplified by that great speech yesterday (and another one today!), and I have every confidence, with all of our hard work, that we need not worry too much about a few wayward polls 7 1/2 months out. They are mostly the product of an ongoing kitchen-sink campaign and McCain getting a free ride. That ride will start to cost him some soon enough. When the voters get a look at the two candidates side by side, hear them debate, hear their convention speeches, the choice will be clear - as long as we work to make it happen