The stakes seem so high in this election because of the competition between political paradigms and styles.
Obama puts forward a new, inclusive paradigm, featuring a synthesis of online organizing and the traditional, Saul Alinsky kind. Hillary’s style, in contrast, seems to be a Frankenstein-like synthesis of Clintonian triangulation and Rovian deception. Obama's style is deliberate, self-conscious and inspiring. Hillary's is reactive, unprogressive and, alas, clearly still formidable.
When I woke up this morning to the headlines, I feared the triumph of the Morris/Penn/Rove style.
Let's notice, something, though that complicates the picture a bit. Hillary won yesterday because of online fundraising. Last night shows us, unfortunately, that Obama's February sweeps were not the result of an authentic mass conversion of Hillary's core groups -- white women, seniors, Latinos. No, it's now clear that Hillary simply didn't have the resources to compete in Wisconsin and Virginia and perhaps Maine.
Obama outspent Hillary at least 4-1 in the larger post-February 5 states and beat her with a great field operation and great tv ads. More important than the ratio of spending: Hillary didn't have the funds to saturate the airwaves with her ads. Her message didn't get out, and she was overwhelmed.
So what saved her March 4 was raising a million dollars a day in February, most of it online. Given the resources to run a real statewide campaign, Hillary became again the formidable candidate who won several states on Feb 4. In Ohio, she got her best result ever because new paradigm funds (ie via the internet) gave her the chance to improve on her old paradigm tactics (the 3AM ad, the NAFTA attacks, effective earned media).
Hillary certainly didn't raise her online funds from this community -- the progressive netroots. So where did it come from? And what does it mean?
For the record, I think Barack will bounce back and win the nomination easily. He's a gifted campaigner and he's got the delegate lead and I believe in the power of organizing and that Bush's utter failure creates an opening for a new politics. But last night should be a reminder, if any were needed, that change isn't easy.