I was attracted to Obama from the moment he spoke at the 2004 Democratic Convention although I was surprised he decided to run for President in 2008 instead of 2012 or 2016.
When he announced last year, I was immediately a supporter - not because I was a Hillary hater (which I am not) but because I believe strongly, even this morning, he would be a better President, better able to unite the country, to get above our usual bitter partisanship.
I kept low in 2007 excited when he was beating Hillary in the money race, but dissappointed when Hillary was outshining him in the debates and buidling on her inevitability, as both the nominee and next President.
As a Howard Dean baby, I am all to familiar with being burned and so I kept my passion for Obama in check until Iowa.
I was euphoric when he won Iowa. Then I was shocked back into a stupor when he lost New Hampshire and I kept my head low with a wait and see attitude.
He loses Nevada, which he was "favored" to win being a caucus state. Not good.
Then, thanks in part to Bill Clinton, he wallops Hillary in South Carolina and Bill's tactics cause Edward Kennedy and others to defect.
Yes, he lost California, but he was expected to a week earlier and it was only Zogby that created a false expectation. But all in all, he did well Super Tuesday - so well in fact that combined with a superior ground game he went on to win 11 straight since Super Tuesday and now HE was beginning to look inevitable.
As an Ohioan, an Obama GOTV captain who worked many hours to help Obama win Ohio or narrow his loss margin, I went into March 4 believing Hillary would finally break her loosing streak. I was not naive.
Despite the passion and hype on the Obama side and with his supporters, I did not buy March 3 that Hillary could not win the nomination. I felt March 3 and still feel March 5 it is possible for Hillary to win the nomination.
Is it mathematically difficult for Hillary? Yep. But only if you look at the elected delegate race.
Either candidate will need superdelegates to secure the nomination. Yes, Obama has picked up about 40 superdelegates since Super Tuesday and Hillary has lost about 6.
But here is the crux of my diary:
How did Hillary wallop Obama in Ohio and manage a narrow popular vote win in Texas after being outspent 3 to 1, after loosing 11 in a row, after people saying she should quit?
Can you spell 3am? Can you spell "Muslim garb" picture leaked to the Drudge Report? Can you spell misleading hype about what Obama's staff said to the Canadian consulate regarding NAFTA? Can you spell "He's not a Muslim, as far as I know"?
Some call it Rovian politics. You're damn right it's Rovian politics and guess what? It worked!
That is where my doubts have come in about OBAMA.
If a candidate can go up against a fellow Democrat who had everything she had stacked against her March 4 and who had all the advantages HE had March 4 and LOSE, who, among the Obama supporters, if you take a moment to contain your Obama passion and devotion, can honestly say what Obama faced this past week is the worst he will get in November? And even if it IS the worst - HE LOST!
I have threatened to sit out this election if Clinton wins the nomination "unfairly". But I have to tell you, all things considered, if I were a superdelegate this morning, and as much as I despise negative politics, if I seriously doubted Obama's ability to respond forcefully to negative campaigning with his own HARDBALL politics, it would not matter to me that Democratic voters, by a narrow margin, chose Obama over Clinton.
My primary concern would be who can beat McCain in November. And if I thought Clinton was the more effective candidate, the stronger fighter, who will go up against a REAL Rovian machine this fall, I would at least consider voting for Clinton if not vote for Clinton.
Under these circumstances, even if Obama had a 150 delegate lead in elected delegates, if I perceived Obama to be weaker against the Republican onslought coming, I would not be doing my duty by voting for the weaker candidate, in this scenario, Obama.
Now, all is not lost. Obama was walloped March 4 (I don't give a shit if Clinton "only" netted maybe 10 delegates overall, he was walloped).
But Obama has a chance to not only maintain and build his elected delegate lead, but MUCH MORE IMPORTANTLY, to learn to be a more effective fighter in the primary.
I want Obama to be the nominee, but he will need to show he can whoop ass, or there is a strong chance March 4 will be a preview of November 4 with McCain as Clinton. NOT GOOD.
So let's see some intellectual arguments why my analysis is full of shit from my fellow Obama supporters rather then blind passion that I dare insult our guy.
I know Hillary's people will agree with me.
What can Obama do to prove he can beat McCain? And don't trott out recent McCain vs Obama and McCain vs Clinton polls. Those are worthless after March 4 and they are worthless 8 months before the general.
I leave you with one last ominous thought (and depressing) - 20% of Ohioans (to my state's shame) considered race an important factor in who they voted for March 4 - and that is mostly DEMOCRATS! I am depressed that race may in fact have a material impact in a November election and I frankly don't know what Obama can do to overcome that.
Fire away folks!
UPDATE:
Read this Washington Post article to amplify the point I am trying to make about my concerns.