It's Saturday, March 8, and the significant state of Wyoming - one of 50 states that matter - is going to the polls.
Consider this both a "how to scorekeep" and live thread, for those in attendance who have returned.
In this diary, I'll tell you how to root for very specific delegate numbers and exactly the thresholds required as the totals roll in that will net extra pledged delegates, as you watch them noted here.
Wyoming gets 12 pledged delegates.
In a sense, Wyoming gets 13, because Wyoming gets 1 "add-on" delegate. People think of the add-ons as superdelegates, but the reality is in caucus states the add-ons are picked by a vote of the state convention, so whoever wins the caucus wins the add-on. Moreover, the add-ons are vetted by the candidates every bit as heavily as pledged delegates to ensure commitment at the convention. Whoever wins the most delegates in caucus states gets the add-on. For more on add-on delegates, check out this TPM Cafe diary.
7 of the 12 are distributed by congressional district. Wyoming is super-easy: there's only one CD, the whole state. Below I will give you a breakdown by county of how many delegates to the state convention are being elected today, but the whole total is 319 state delegates.
[UPDATE 1] Thank you, ttujoe! Made a silly mistake (that actually simplified the math). I said there were 23 counties (there are) and then I left off Natrona with its 43 delegates. So I had to factor the 43 back in, and spend a moment redoing the math. Hopefully I didn't confuse anyone! And thanks everyone for all the kind comments below!
160 to win. Let's make the safe assumption that Obama wins.
4-3 split, 160-205 state convention delegates (50.001% - 64.285%).
5-2 split, 206-250 state convention delegates (64.286% - 78.571%).
6-1 split, 251-271 state convention delegates (78.572% - 85.000%).
7-0 split, 272-319 state convention delegates (85.001% - 100%).
(85% would mean failure of 15% viability would eliminate Clinton. Obviously very unlikely, not even Idaho did that.)
Then PLEOs are divided based on statewide total. There's 2.
1-1 split, 160-239 state convention delegates (50% - 74.999%).
2-0 split, 240-319 state convention delegates (75.001% - 100%).
Then at-large pledged delegates based on statewide total. There's 3.
2-1 split, 160-265 state convention delegates (50.001% - 83.332%)
3-0 split, 266-319 state convention delegates (83.334% - 100%).
Note that a bare majority earns a 7-5 split due to a 4-3 district-wide win and a 2-1 statewide win for at-large delegates. They're the same thing, but what's a 1-CD state to do?
160-205: Obama wins 7-5 split, +1 add-on.
206-239: Obama wins 8-4 split, +1 add-on.
240-250: Obama wins 9-3 split, +1 add-on.
251-265: Obama wins 10-2 split, +1 add-on.
266-271: Obama wins 11-1 split, +1 add-on.
272-319: Obama wins 12-0 sweep, +1 add-on.
The add-on will not be credited to Obama until the state convention May 24.
So, what times are the caucuses and how many per county?
There are 23 county caucuses.
Convening at 8amPST / 9MST / 10CST / 11EST:
Albany – 25 delegates
Fremont (til 1pm MST) – 23 delegates
Goshen (til noon MST) – 7 delegates
Laramie – 55 delegates
Natrona - 43 delegates
Sublette – 4 delegates
Uinta – 11 delegates
Total – 168 delegates
Convening at 8:30amPST / 9:30MST / 10:30CST / 11:30EST:
Hot Springs (til noon MST) – 4 delegates
Niobrara – 1 delegate
Total – 5 delegates
Convening at 9amPST / 10MST / 11CST / noonEST:
Campbell (til 4pm MST) – 17 delegates
Carbon (til 2pm MST) – 10 delegates
Converse – 7 delegates
Crook – 4 delegates
Park – 16 delegates
Platte – 6 delegates
Sweetwater – 24 delegates
Washakie – 5 delegates
Total – 89 delegates
Convening at 10amPST / 11MST / noonCST / 1EST:
Lincoln – 8 delegates
Total – 8 delegates
Convening at 1pmPST / 2MST / 3CST / 4EST:
Big Horn – 6 delegates
Johnson – 4 delegates
Sheridan (til 6pm MST) – 18 delegates
Weston – 4 delegates
Total – 32 delegates
Convening at 3pmPST / 4MST / 5CST / 6EST:
Teton – 17 delegates
Total – 17 delegates
At CNN's site, they usually list the raw state delegate totals in caucuses.
I hope that anyone from Wyoming who reports in from one of the 23 counties can report their raw numbers in the comments and I can append the results into the diary.
[RESULTS UPDATES BEGINNING]
Politico has a running total on its frontpage here. But beware! These are total votes and don't translate straight up necessarily to state delegates. The issue is state delegates NOT total votes.
Again, the 59-41 numbers you are seeing after 7 counties have reported are NOT the relevant numbers. The relevant numbers are the number of delegates each county sends to the state convention. Right now Obama has 62.8% of the delegates apportioned to the state convention - not 59%... this is an important distinction that most seem to be missing...
Looks like CNN is the best place to figure this out - you have to scroll your mouse over the Wyoming map of counties with 100% reporting. Then drop uncommitted votes below 15%, then figure out what Obama's Votes/(Obama's Votes + Clinton's Votes) is, multiplied by the number of state delegates for the county.
1. Niobrara (1): Obama 0.5, Clinton 0.5!
2. Crook (4): Obama 2, Clinton 2
3. Goshen (7): goes Obama 3.5, Clinton 3.5 (per state party site, strange)
4. Hot Springs (4): Obama 2, Clinton 2
5. Sublette(4) : Obama 3, Clinton 1
6. Uinta (11): Obama 8, Clinton 3
7. Campbell (17): Obama 11, Clinton 6 (JUST over the 10.5 threshold by ONE human being! Excellent work, wmandevi and docangel!)
8. Platte (6): Obama 3, Clinton 3
9. Washakie (5): Obama 3, Clinton 2
10. Albany (25): Obama 19, Clinton 6 (thank you, Laramie!)
11. Sweetwater (24): Clinton 14, Obama 10
12. Converse (7): Clinton 4, Obama 3
13. Natrona (43): Obama 21, Clinton 21, 1 unallocated per state party site
14. Lincoln (8): Obama 5, Clinton 3
15. Park (16): Obama 10, Clinton 6
16. Carbon (10): Obama 5, Clinton 5
17. Laramie (55): Obama 34, Clinton 21
18. Fremont (23): Obama 13, Clinton 9, 1 Other
19. Weston (4): Obama 2, Clinton 2
20. Big Horn (6): Obama 3, Clinton 3
21. Johnson (4): Obama 2, Clinton 2
22. Sheridan (18): Obama 11, Clinton 7
23. Teton (17): Obama 13.5, Clinton 3.5
Running Total (319 of 319 in): Obama 187.5, Clinton 129.5, 2 Other; Obama 59.148% of delegates
Gonna be a pretty tough battle for that 8-4 split, back and forth across that 64.286% border. Remember the magic # of delegates is 206.
Where we stand: We're in a lull as we wait for the biggest county of the day to report. That's Laramie County with Cheyenne and 55 delegates to the state convention. We're also waiting on Fremont (23) and Carbon (10 - which was on the CNN.com feed for awhile and seemed a clear Obama edge based on the vocality... update obviously even). Three small ones plus Sheridan (18) get underway in a little over an hour. Teton (17) starts last (though Sheridan might report last).
What it looks like is Obama is sure to get 7 national pledged delegates and Clinton is sure to get 4. Obama will also get the add-on in May. What remains to be seen is that final delegate. Obama needs 97 of 127 to get there, which is 76.4% of the remaining number. That will be very hard. We may well know almost for sure after Cheyenne reports.
So Obama +2 pledged delegates, outside shot at +4, as we sit here right now. With Carbon in, chances of 8-4 fading. Looking like 7-5 plus the add-on, unless Cheyenne comes in huge, like 42-13.
... And it comes in very nice in Laramie County for Obama, but 7-5 is all but certain.
IT'S OFFICIAL - OBAMA WINS WYOMING. Nets +2 delegates and will get the +1 add-on in May. (Note - they haven't announced because people are still voting).
OBAMA 7, Clinton 5.
(With 49 state delegates left, Obama can only hit 205 even if he won them all. Technically, Obama needs 5 of the remaining 49 state delegates to hit the required 160, but this is not in doubt.)
The remaining 5 counties don't start caucusing for another 40 minutes (Teton actually in 2 hrs 40 min). I will not be updating in real time since there is nothing uncertain left. (I'll come back tonight and finish it up). A huge thank you to everyone who commented, everyone who pointed out little bugs and helped me get back on track. I would like to do Mississippi but I may not be available. Just remember there are SIX races (two of them redundant) on Tuesday, not one.
CD 1 = 5 delegates
CD 2 = 7 delegates (very fertile 5-2 opportunity)
CD 3 = 5 delegates
CD 4 = 5 delegates
statewide PLEO = 4 delegates
statewide at-large = 7 delegates
Obama's spreadsheet (which predicted Wyoming 7-5) has Mississippi 20-13, +7.
THANK YOU, WYOMING!