(Note: This diary is cross-posted at MyDD)
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A blog from Frank James that piggybacks off of another article by the AP's Charles Babington:
Baltimore Sun blog
From the blog:
Is Sen. Barack Obama's overwhelming support from black voters the kiss of death with many white ones, especially core Democratic, non-college graduates?
and
Maybe there's something in politics akin to the white flight that has long occurred in urban and suburban residential neighborhoods.
The reason for some of this speculation of 'white flight' from Obama extends beyond the results seen in Texas and Ohio. As I mentioned in a post yesterday (at MyDD), there is a new Pew Research poll which echoes the developments seen in the just-completed primaries of 2 of the nation's 7 most-populous states:
Pew Research poll
An excerpt:
But in an Obama-McCain matchup, 14% of Democratic voters say they would support McCain
and
One-in-five white Democrats (20%) say that they will vote for McCain over Obama
.
.
These statistics could present legitimate ballot-box challenges for Democrats eager to retake the White House, particularly if this supposed 'white flight' from Senator Obama were to continue to gain momentum during a general election campaign against Senator McCain.
According to Lorenzo Morris, Chair of the Department of Political Science at Howard University:
Blacks make up 12 percent of the population but 25 to 30 percent of the Democratic party
2008 African-American vote briefing for foreign press
And in 2004, African-Americans made up 11% of all voters in the presidential election
2004 election brings new African-Americans to Congress
The question then becomes: Can a candidate whose core base (Senator Obama is receiving between 80-90% of the African American vote in many contests) constitutes just 11% of the national electorate win the general election, particularly if he is supposedly 'bleeding' the white voters who make up more than 75% of the nation's body politic?
If the trend seen in Texas and Ohio continues (notwithstanding the results of the very small, non-private voting of the Wyoming caucuses), and the Pew poll is a genuine measurement of a move away from Senator Obama by a majority of both the Democratic Party's and the nation's electorate, then the DNC and the Democratic superdelegates likely have some serious thinking to do between now and the naming of their nominee for the general election.