Like the small school which upset the big city team in the movie Hoosiers, Indiana's primary on May 6 is a key primary to change the dynamic in a big way. Both Clinton and Obama are here, vying for votes because they realize it is the next battleground over momentum. It may be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton in Indiana. Here's why below the fold...
Pennsylvania and North Carolina are important but the issue is how much each candidate can keep the winning margin down. Thus, it is a battle over expectations. Clinton will likely win Pennsylvania and Obama will likely win North Carolina. The question and narrative will be by how much. If either candidate can keep the winner down to single digits, they will be seen as "winning".
Indiana, on the other hand, is up for grabs. New polls have Clinton and Obama neck and neck, within the margin of error. So, on May 6th, the question will be: who wins a state that tends to be fairly mainstream and working class. Obama's ads have been running with him walking outside a shuttered steel plant and talking against special interest lobbying. If Obama wins, it will shift the momentum and show that he can win a state where most of the political elite have supported Clinton.
Evan Bayh and former Dem Governor Joe Kernan have endorsed Clinton. So have most of the Democratic party heavies such as State Chair and some District Chairs. Former Congressmen and 9/11 commissioners Tim Roemer and Lee Hamilton have endorsed Obama, giving him legitimate foreign policy and national security credibility. And in the northern city of South Bend, popular Mayor Steve Luecke surprisingly and publicly endorsed Obama Wednesday night when Obama launched his bus tour in South Bend.
I know, I know, it's all about the delegates. But to the national media, and to many people in remaining primaries (not to mention the SD's) it's about the narrative and about "upsets". Indiana can clearly be that narrative where Obama wins a primary state despite many of the party heavyweights having endorsed Clinton.
Both are working the state heavily now. All three Clintons have been here for weeks, and Obama made his first appearance this week. The excitement in Indiana for both campaigns is high with thousands turning out at each stop. Every basketball game has a turning point, and with the sport in Indiana nearing a state pastime, the game is on, and Indiana may be where the "fast break" turning point occurs.
Obama in South Bend video