This is my theoretical makeup of the electorate in 2008. Let’s take a second to think completely in the abstract about how voters are currently divided ignoring whether or not these voters will support candidate X or candidate Y in the general. If you consider the popular vote results of the 2006 race (52-44% in the House races nationally), the unpopularity of the war (68% want troops out within 2 years), the state of the economy (17% rate it good/excellent) under Bush, the president’s abysmal approval rating (28%), and the sour mood of voters in general (15% satisfied w/ country’s direction), I would say that about 55% of voters are predisposed to "be on our side" or to lean our way in this election. Essentially, any generic republican candidate for president is facing a very strong "headwind" and any generic democratic candidate has a natural advantage.
Imagine that our race was over already and that Obama won the primary very early on. Imagine that all these character attacks, including but not limited to bitter, elitist , flag pin, Ayers, Reverend Wright, etc. were all being fired at Obama from republicans. If we were a united party, united in our belief that these attacks amount to a distraction from the real issues, I think about 55% of the electorate would be predisposed to agree with us in this political climate. I think about 45% would be predisposed to disagree – and thus to buy into the caricature of Obama that the republicans would attempt to paint, just like they bought into the image the republicans painted of John Kerry in 2004.
That’s not the case, however, in this primary. This is where Hillary comes in. Lots of people think that her presence in the race is helping to "toughen up" Obama and make him prove that he can "take a punch." Some people say in regards to these issues, that it is better to "deal with them now" than in November against McCain. So in essence, they think that Hillary is actually doing us a favor by airing Obama’s dirty laundry early on.
That’s not what her presence in this race is doing, however. Far from it. As she continues to echo personal attacks, as she continues to label Obama "elitist, condescending, and patronizing", as she continues to say that the Reverend Wright issue deserves "further attention" and is "important", all she is doing is increasing the number of voters who are apt to buy into the image of Obama that republicans will try to create in November. Now, instead of 45% of the population that is predisposed to buy into these attacks on Obama, the republican bloc plus her own bloc of the democratic party are going to think that these "issues" are actually relevant.
Now instead of 55% of the population that are "naturally" behind the generic democrat over the generic republican, we’ve got huge chunks of the population who are going to be having doubts about Obama by the time he is the nominee. Hillary’s presence in the race and continual attacks don’t really help Obama in any way at all. They only serve to limit his potential for the general election by feeding the image in which the republicans will try to "define" him because it’s the same way Hillary is trying to define him right now.
I know that this is a very basic, imprecise sketch of the electorate. I’m not trying to suggest either that 70% of people aren’t going to vote for Obama. That 25% of the country that I classify as "Clinton Dems" may come right back around and support Obama, in fact, most of them will. Some will not, however. Everything is not going to just magically be ok after this primary is all over. The affect that Hillary has had is not necessarily to turn 25% of the population against Obama, but to legitimize personal attacks that republicans will be making against Obama among her supporters when they would have otherwise likely have been predisposed to reject them.
There was a recent Rasmussen poll that asked, "Do Obama’s comments reflect an elitist view of small town America?" 18% were unsure in their response. But of the 82% of respondents who had an opinion on the matter, 55% of them said yes, Obama’s comments are elitist. 45% of them said no. Case in point. I highly doubt that these results would be the same if Hillary was not in the race, and was not out there every day telling democratic voters on national television that Obama’s comments were elitist. She would have been defending him from republican attacks similar to the attacks she herself faced in the 90’s.
Competition can be healthy. This primary is not. It’s become an ugly, disastrous mess and it’s reflected in the latest general election polling. The latest Rasmussen polling shows Obama losing to McCain 43-47% and Hillary losing 41-49%. Of course this can be overcome but you’ve got wonder how much of the damage being caused is permanent. Why are we losing in a general election when we have such a strong natural advantage on the issues? The longer this goes, the uglier it gets, the better shot John McCain has at winning.
The bottom line is that Hillary’s presence is not helping Obama and making him stronger. These attacks she is using now are going to be used again by the republicans in November to raise doubts in people’s minds no matter what happens. The question is how many people will actually buy it? Hillary is not giving Obama a chance to get these issues out of the way by attacking him over and over again. She is increasing the number of voters who are going to buy into these kinds of attacks later. Why? Because when she finally does drop out of the race, she can’t say "Yah, those things I said about Obama in the primary that the republicans are saying about him now...I was just kidding!" SHE is helping THEM define HIM.