Okay. The Clintonistas and the MSM keep feeding us this BIGSTATESANDELECTORALVOTES pablum, so I decided to see if there was any cycle to their spin. Not so much.
Before I dignify this idiocy, let me state that we just cannot gauge the electoral mood in November this far out. It could very well be that six months with elitist-black-power-muslim-lapel-pin-shunning Obama as our candidate will frighten the bejeezus out of many Americans, as HRC surmises, and give McSame the victory he does not deserve. It could be that the multi-headed hydra of sniper-dodging-NAFTA-touting-Iraq-War-voting Clinton as our nominee will utterly nauseate the electorate, and give McSame the victory he does not deserve.
In terms of the "pitch to the superdelegates", what we are talking about (because it’s what the hair-raisingly disingenuous Lanny Davises and James Carvilles of the world have strong-armed the MSM into harping on) is perceived electoral strength. Doing my own calculations, looking at who has performed better state by state, I’m struck by several things.
See table below:
OBAMA DEM
21 Illinois, 10 Maryland, 7 Connecticut, 4 Hawaii, 4 Maine, 3 D.C., 3 Delaware, 3 Vermont
TOTAL 55 EVs
CLINTON DEM
55 California, 31 New York, 15 New Jersey, 12 Massachusetts, 4 Rhode Island
TOTAL 117 EVs
OBAMA REP
34 Texas*, 27 Florida*, 15 Georgia, 11 Indiana*, 9 Alabama, 9 Louisiana, 8 South Carolina, 6 Kansas, 6 Mississippi, 5 Nebraska, 5 Utah, 4 Idaho, 3 Alaska, 3 Wyoming, 3 Montana*,3 North Dakota*, 3 South Dakota
TOTAL 82-154 EVs
CLINTON REP
34 Texas*, 27 Florida*, 11 Tennessee, 11 Indiana**, 10 Arizona, 8 Kentucky*, 7 Oklahoma, 6 Arkansas, 5 W. Virginia*
TOTAL 47-119 EVs
OBAMA SWING
17 Michigan*, 15 North Carolina*, 13 Virginia, 11 Washington, 11 Missouri, 10 Minnesota, 10 Wisconsin, 9 Colorado, 7 Iowa, 7 Oregon*
TOTAL 93-110 EVs
CLINTON SWING
21 Pennsylvania, 20 Ohio, 17 Michigan*, 5 N. Mexico, 5 Nevada, 4 N. Hampshire
TOTAL 55-72 EVs
*Note: I’ve assumed a couple special situations. MI and FL I’ve put into both of their columns (though I suspect they’d split them in real, contested voting)—because to be fair, we just don’t know how they would have come out. Texas I have given to both candidates, because they both can claim to have “won” it; in the end, the point is moot (we ain’t gonna win TX). The states that have yet to vote I’ve parceled out to the candidate who is ahead at that moment, with the exception of IN, the toss-up, which I put in both of their columns. At any rate, only MI is really relevant, as a blueish swing state; we ain’t gonna win IN or (alas) FL.
Also, I'm assuming that PA, VA and NC are swing states; others may disagree. Likewise, as stated above, FL is not a swing state any more.
So. Yes, HRC performs somewhat better among democrats in the BIGSTATES. I see her leading in that column by 117 EVs to Obama’s 55. However, if Obama cannot carry RI, MA and NY, the democrats have serious problems. Likewise, if Clinton can’t get MD and IL, we’re toast. In other words, both Obama and Clinton will start with a base of solidly dem states, or 172 EVs.
In states we have little chance of winning in the fall (you know, the states the Clintons dismissed), Obama has a pronounced advantage, netting 82-154 EVs to Clinton’s 47-119. Not only does Obama win more often in Republican areas, he wins by huge margins (something Clinton has only done once, in AR). This isn’t especially interesting in terms of red states, but I think it is very telling behavior when applied to likely voting in the fall in swing states. Obama is very popular with republicans and independents. Apart from dems with Stockholm Syndrome, no one seems to much like HRC (a recent poll found that 60% of the country does not trust her. shades of GWB, anyone?).
Which brings me to the swing states. Obama is blowing HRC away in these states: 93-110 EVs to 55-72. Probably the popularity with Republicans and Independents I mentioned above accounts for some of that. Of the 165 possible swing state EVs, Obama’s got a baseline of 93-110; HRC, just 55-72. In other words, based on their utterly meaningless BIGSTATESANDELECTORALVOTES B.S., Obama is the obviously preferable candidate.
Oh, in case I forget: None of this matters. Obama has the most votes, the most delegates and the most states. OBAMA IS OUR NOMINEE!